Hate to break this but ...

[Stormsfury]

The models advertise the system (97L) NOT getting very far away from the islands as originally expected ... although it appears that the system doesn't look to develop significantly now, just the fact that it MAY linger around the vicinity isn't good news for areas that have been totally inundated by flooding rainfalls ...

The GFDL actually continues the idea that a second spinup which briefly exhibits tropical storm force winds develops NE of the main LL vorticity we're currently watching in between PR and Hispanola ... which could occur due to the fact that land interaction and interference is not a factor.

GFDL 12z 97L MSLP
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfdltc2.cgi ... =Animation

GFDL 12z 97L 950mb Vort.
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfdltc2.cgi ... =Animation

The UKMET is an outlier driving the system back west WAY earlier than any other model and the vorticity ends up in the W. Caribbean at the end of the period! ... WTF?

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukmettc2.cg ... =Animation

The 12z CMC loops the system as the strong low which blasted Michigan/the Midwest and the NE with very strong winds today and associated trough bypasses the system to the north and east ...

12z CMC 925mb Vort
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi? ... =Animation

00z CMC 925mb Vort - similar in keeping the remnant vorticity energy around the islands in the next 5 days and a couple of CMC ensembles paint a grim picture for Hispanola/PR in the next 10 days ...

00z CMC 925mb Vort
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi? ... =Animation

00z CMC ensembles
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Mode ... mbles.html

12z GFS 950mb Vort takes a good portion of the energy similar to the GFDL splitting BUT most of the energy is swept into the trough associated with the strong NE'rn storm leaving behind only a very weak reflection ...
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avntc2.cgi? ... =Animation

[Stormsfury]

NOGAPS is similar and a blend of the CMC/GFS/GFDL with 97L.

[ameriwx2003]

Hey SF.. can you guess what model JB mentions in tonights column update?? lol

[Stormsfury]

Hey SF.. can you guess what model JB mentions in tonights column update?? lol

LOL ... Let me guess, the UKMIE??? (or should I say the PUKEME!)..

Well, IMHO, the UKMET is totally clueless... especially since it takes the heart of the vorticity right OVER Hispanola and still retains the identity (weakened) but still clearly apparent on that run ... 10,000 ft+ mountains eat weak circ. like that for lunch and NOT going to happen if the short term UKMET verifies ...

SF

[msbee]

this is NOT good news!

[Josephine96]

You guys don't need anymore rain. Maybe it'll just fizzle out.

[ameriwx2003]

Storm.. yep:):) JB is hawking the UKMET and is seeming to fall in love with it again today:):).. I like JB but sometimes he is stubborn lol:):).. He still wants that Florida storm:):)

[bocavice]

Does JB feel the system in PR will somehow hit FLA even though its drifting northeast

[Steve H.]

yeah ameri, you can't bait us like that!!

[Stormsfury]

This morning's model runs are supporting the lingering around scenario with 97L ... There are actually two separate areas of lower pressure in the broad scale environment ... the LLS is stuck just NE of Hispanola once again this morning with the convection well away from that feature, yet once again ... but look to the NNE of that area and another feature is looking like it's taking shape ... (hence the splitting)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

CMC ensembles ...
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Mode ... mbles.html

GFS 00z
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avntc2.cgi? ... =Animation

GFS 00z 950mb Vort
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avntc2.cgi? ... =Animation

00z CMC 925 Vort
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi? ... =Animation

This morning even the UKMET is making a little bit more sense and coming back more in line with the overall model consensus ... but still too far west ...

Bottom line is ... the system as a whole isn't going anywhere fast ... fortunately, the rains do not look to return as heavy and as continuous as before, but any additional rainfalls clearly isn't good at this juncture in the game.

[ameriwx2003]

No, what JB does say is the UKMET shows this system south of the western tip of Cuba in 144 hrs and he says this shows that you can't write this system off yet.. I agree with SF the UKMET is to far west .. time will tell.. :):)

[Stormsfury]

Storm.. yep:):) JB is hawking the UKMET and is seeming to fall in love with it again today:):).. I like JB but sometimes he is stubborn lol:):).. He still wants that Florida storm:):)

Yeah, I guess so ... however, JB better look at the trough that even it progs this morning on the 00z run ...

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukmettc2.cg ... hour=120hr

The GFS/EURO BOTH make it almost impossible for anything tropically speaking to reach Florida in 5 days ... with the GFS spinning up quite a storm system with a potential for severe weather in the Midwest/MA/SE by next Tuesday ... tonight's EURO will shed some light IMO regarding this ... but the 00z GFS setup was QUITE interesting for mainland US .. but that's another story/post for another thread ..

Also, here's the Day 7 EURO 500mb heights and MSLP ... notice the 1006mb low off the NE coast ... a secondary development along that same trough ...

EURO Day 7

Now the Day 5 GFS - That's a screaming setup for potential severe Wx ... strong UL divergence as the trough goes NEG TILT from Ohio southward into the Carolinas ...

MSLP


500mb Heights


300mb Heights

[Stormsfury]

No, what JB does say is the UKMET shows this system south of the western tip of Cuba in 144 hrs and he says this shows that you can't write this system off yet.. I agree with SF the UKMET is to far west .. time will tell.. :):)

Time will tell ... but for that system to even have any chance it would be at least 10 days away based on the overall pattern and IMHO, likely wouldn't be anything left of it ...

JB is really reaching now.