ATL: FIONA - Models

[jlauderdal]

0Z early guidance, looks like a significant shift westwards

Big mountains ahead on that track

[Blown Away]

18z ECMWF… A bit stronger and NE of 12z at @90 hrs.

[Spacecoast]

Comparing 18z to 12z ECENS... black square (NE coast of Cuba) is operational @144hrs.
Doesn't look like 18z ensembles followed the 12z Operational. Perhaps a few more stronger members

[SFLcane]

Comparing 18z to 12z ECENS... black square (NE coast of Cuba) is operational @144hrs.
Doesn't look like 18z ensembles followed the 12z Operational. Perhaps a few more stronger members
https://i.ibb.co/zh3sfhb/cdb.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/LSrPtdz/cda.jpg

Those strong members are not going to verify.

[AutoPenalti]

I wonder If you extrapolate the 18z further out it recurves away.

[skyline385]

HAFS 0Z early guidance and 18Z run continues the westward trend, goes into Cuba

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1570598166000730112

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1570611390926454785

[Category5Kaiju]

HAFS 0Z early guidance and 18Z run continues the westward trend, goes into Cuba

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1570598166000730112?s=20&t=Yappppb9IWB_Xyl_3vd4SQ

https://i.imgur.com/3tNu0YL.png

https://i.imgur.com/cZTTBF9.gif

Lol, some of those runs even show a WSW dive :

[BobHarlem]

0z icon gets further west than prior runs toward Hispaniola then goes nnw and stays east of the Bahamas. Overall a shift left from 12z

[skyline385]

ICON 0Z probably making the biggest westwards jump so far from the global models

[BobHarlem]

So far 0z gfs is right of the 18z, but left of 12z. It turns to north at the eastern edge of Hispaniola this run. CMC also shifted right some (out to 102 hours)

[skyline385]

So far 0z gfs is right of the 18z, but left of 12z. It turns to north at the eastern edge of Hispaniola this run. CMC also shifted right some (out to 102 hours)

Think both CMC and GFS are OTS this run

[Blown Away]

So far 0z gfs is right of the 18z, but left of 12z. It turns to north at the eastern edge of Hispaniola this run. CMC also shifted right some (out to 102 hours)

Think both CMC and GFS are OTS this run

The W trend ended in 1 cycle, back to full recurve near Bermuda as a MH after Hispaniola. PR & Hispaniola may end up with a minimal hurricane. Still no signs Fiona is getting her act together.

[skyline385]

So far 0z gfs is right of the 18z, but left of 12z. It turns to north at the eastern edge of Hispaniola this run. CMC also shifted right some (out to 102 hours)

Think both CMC and GFS are OTS this run

The W trend ended in 1 cycle, back to full recurve near Bermuda as a MH after Hispaniola. PR & Hispaniola may end up with a minimal hurricane. Still no signs Fiona is getting her act together.

lol CMC finds a way

[TheDreamTraveler]

Think both CMC and GFS are OTS this run

The W trend ended in 1 cycle, back to full recurve near Bermuda as a MH after Hispaniola. PR & Hispaniola may end up with a minimal hurricane. Still no signs Fiona is getting her act together.

lol CMC finds a way

https://i.imgur.com/vBa6koq.png

CMC is at least more in line with the GFS and Euro now lol

[Keldeo1997]

Door just closed on the GFS

[AutoPenalti]

Watch this thread die lol GFS door just closed.

[TheDreamTraveler]

So far 0z gfs is right of the 18z, but left of 12z. It turns to north at the eastern edge of Hispaniola this run. CMC also shifted right some (out to 102 hours)

Think both CMC and GFS are OTS this run

The W trend ended in 1 cycle, back to full recurve near Bermuda as a MH after Hispaniola. PR & Hispaniola may end up with a minimal hurricane. Still no signs Fiona is getting her act together.

The longer Fiona stays weak the greater the chance of a east coast landfall due to it not feeling the weakness as soon

[RevanTheJedi96]

Watch this thread die lol GFS door just closed.

??????? What does this mean

[BobHarlem]

No us mainland landfall with 0z CMC, gets close to the outer banks, but not too close. Big jump east from the 0z run into Florida/New Orleans to this.