ATL: FIONA - Models

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RevanTheJedi96
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#381 Postby RevanTheJedi96 » Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:37 pm

The East Coast looks like the target if Fiona hits the US. This latest GFS run shows Fiona stalling right outside Bermuda, so god knows where it ends up at the end of the run. The fact other models are pointing towards the East Coast too doesn't give me comfort.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#382 Postby blp » Fri Sep 16, 2022 12:09 am

GEFS much further west and south. :eek:

Image
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#383 Postby CourierPR » Fri Sep 16, 2022 12:24 am

blp wrote:GEFS much further west and south. :eek:

https://i.ibb.co/v3F1Mq2/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh192-trend.gif


I just heard Met. Bette Davis at Local 10 Miami on Fiona and she was quite candid in saying that they don't know at this point if Fiona will have any affect on Florida.
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ATL: FIONA - Models

#384 Postby skyline385 » Fri Sep 16, 2022 12:34 am

CourierPR wrote:
blp wrote:GEFS much further west and south. :eek:

https://i.ibb.co/v3F1Mq2/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh192-trend.gif


I just heard Met. Bette Davis at Local 10 Miami on Fiona and she was quite candid in saying that they don't know at this point if Fiona will have any affect on Florida.

Yea way too early to completely discount Florida.

Last we saw the LLC was running ahead of the convection blob, we dunno if there will be a center relocation or not. Then there is the uncertainty after interaction with DR, does the core manage to survive the mountains or get completely shredded. The former would allow it to be pulled by the weakness whereas the latter would let it drift westwards. Finally, there is also typhoon Nanmadol which is overperforming and looks set to become a giant Cat 4/5 system which could potentially affect the ridging over the Atlantic.


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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#385 Postby Keldeo1997 » Fri Sep 16, 2022 2:16 am

Image

Image

EURO ends with a Cliffhanger.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#386 Postby aspen » Fri Sep 16, 2022 5:29 am


That setup could be a recipe for disaster. Fiona is moving so slow that it would have plenty of time to RI into a major, and any wrong turn would sent it into the East Coast. The CMC is very similar to the Euro, while the GFS is further east and gives Bermuda a scare.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#387 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 16, 2022 6:59 am

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1570740874690318338


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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#388 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 16, 2022 7:03 am

Overnight (0Z)

EURO
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GFS
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CMC
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#389 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 16, 2022 7:04 am

6Z GFS
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#390 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 16, 2022 7:05 am

The 6Z Euro is running

Image

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#391 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 16, 2022 7:12 am



Appears 06z ECMWF was slightly SE of 00z at 72 hours.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#392 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 16, 2022 7:29 am

A stronger Fiona at the end of the 06z Euro, down to 979mb just north of DR, a stronger Fiona will definitely feel the weakness to its north.
I would expect its ensembles will shift to the right.

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#393 Postby drezee » Fri Sep 16, 2022 7:32 am

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1570743876960530432


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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#394 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Sep 16, 2022 7:32 am

So I take it the models shifted right overnight?

So much volatility. FWIW, 06z Euro is SE (slower?) than 0z.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#395 Postby chris_fit » Fri Sep 16, 2022 8:11 am

00Z GFS
Image

Image

00Z EPS

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#396 Postby skyline385 » Fri Sep 16, 2022 8:17 am

12Z early guidance favours a recurve

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#397 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 16, 2022 8:22 am

skyline385 wrote:12Z early guidance favours a recurve

https://i.imgur.com/yHyDUvJ.png


Might barely clip DR based on those models. The trend is for a stronger stronger storm which will no doupt allow this to get yanked pretty quickly. 12z guidance is not even close concering conus impacts but we will see
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#398 Postby pgoss11 » Fri Sep 16, 2022 8:25 am

skyline385 wrote:12Z early guidance favours a recurve

https://i.imgur.com/yHyDUvJ.png

Mid Atlantic and New England might still be in play. Too early to predict that just yet.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#399 Postby skyline385 » Fri Sep 16, 2022 8:43 am

Lots of spread in 06Z EPS still

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#400 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 16, 2022 8:45 am

NDG wrote:A stronger Fiona at the end of the 06z Euro, down to 979mb just north of DR, a stronger Fiona will definitely feel the weakness to its north.
I would expect its ensembles will shift to the right.

https://i.imgur.com/tItNWV1.gif


Really still intensifies it over DR i call that bluff.. :roll:
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