ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

New consensus (TVCN), which the NHC follows closely, is faster and a little closer to Puerto Rico. It indicates a sharper north and northeast turn north of the DR at a much faster speed. Maybe too fast due to GFS component.

[aspen]

The grand return of Tropical Tidbits videos.
https://mobile.twitter.com/TropicalTidb ... gr%5Etweet

[Sciencerocks]

[jlauderdal]

Landfall imminent on that shot

[wxman57]

As expected, NHC adjusted their track to come closer to TVCN. Faster and a little closer to PR then more of a north turn and faster north of the DR. Days 6 and 7 of consensus take Fiona toward Bermuda.

[skyline385]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/4082/7CZywb.gif

Landfall imminent on that shot

Not much of a landfall with that mess, barely any precipitation on radar. Most of it is probably lagging with the MLC.


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[InfernoFlameCat]

Only the lower part of the bottom island of Guadeloupe has high terrain. The part that Fiona is going over is nearly flat. I doubt this island hurts Fiona. It may actually help by increasing convergence, which may explain the recent burst of convection over the center of Fiona.

[cheezyWXguy]

Is the environment getting more favorable? I know these latest bursts near the center are aided by the terrain and heating of the islands, but they’re also very circular. I’m used to seeing convective bursts being immediately sheared off to the east with this system and this looks a little different, at least for now

[tolakram]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/TJA5960CGQ4[/youtube]

[AubreyStorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 SEP 2022 Time : 222020 UTC
Lat : 16:27:16 N Lon : 61:22:53 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 / 1002mb / 39kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.2 2.3 2.3

T Numbers go down right?

[tolakram]

IR floater https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-13-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Microphysics. Back 200 frames, you can see the blowup is right over the center.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-ntmicro-200-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1570915615476690945

[Pelicane]

Ton of lightning in that new convective burst.

[Nimbus]

Recent observation from Port Louis Wind: 64km/h from WSW.
So its already passed through Guadeloupe.
Power outages likely with 64KM/hr winds.'

[aspen]

Seems like Fiona’s exact center is over Guadeloupe and is inaccessible to recon, or the LLC has significantly weakened. Winds are still around 45-50 kt though.

[tolakram]

Not sure they went through center, might be more concerned with conditions around Guadeloupe first.

[ThetaE]

Seems like Fiona’s exact center is over Guadeloupe and is inaccessible to recon, or the LLC has significantly weakened. Winds are still around 45-50 kt though.

Fiona seems pretty clearly over Guadeloupe based on wind vectors. It's difficult to say with a disorganized system like this what land interaction will do, especially since there seem to be more important trends going on with Fiona's structure (i.e. convection firing near/over the LLC for the first time in a day or so).

[CyclonicFury]

Seems like Fiona’s exact center is over Guadeloupe and is inaccessible to recon, or the LLC has significantly weakened. Winds are still around 45-50 kt though.

The LLC has not weakened, a weather station in Guadeloupe reported a pressure of 1003 mb while the wind shifted from N to NW. Since the center was inland recon could not get a fix.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Shear appears to be decreasing. I am curious as to what is happening under that big blob of convection.

[IsabelaWeather]

Shear appears to be decreasing. I am curious as to what is happening under that big blob of convection.

Yes, I am watching the trends quite closely now. Going to be an interesting night it appears, i finished all the prepping I can do, now it's wait and see. This is my first TC since moving the the Island after Maria.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I believe the convection might be pulling in the LLC. I am not sure at all though. Really need a microwave image right now.