ATL: FIONA - Models

[CrazyC83]

Lol @ the Euro sending a 930 MB nuke into Nova Scotia/Maine.

An all timer right there.

I wouldn't completely say it is impossible, especially if Fiona can get closer to 75W.

[Keldeo1997]

The EPS is saying not so fast on Fish food.

[LarryWx]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/1020610120327118858/natl_2.png

The EPS is saying not so fast on Fish food.

Is the 0Z EPS drunk? About 30% of the members landfall on the SE US coast after only 8% at 12Z!
Also, fwiw since not a good model, the 0Z CFS hits FL and then skirts the coast up to NC. Earlier runs were OTS. And keep in mind the 12Z JMA's turn west from 168 to 192.

[aspen]

00z HWRF and HMON both get Fiona into the 930s north of the Greater Antilles. However, they’re starting off unreasonably strong; the HWRF in particular has an upper 960s system making landfall in PR.

[CFLHurricane]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/1020610120327118858/natl_2.png

The EPS is saying not so fast on Fish food.

Untangling the plate of spaghetti, it appears minimal disruption by Hispaniola sends it to Bermuda and maximum disruption sends it to Florida. That’s less than ideal.

[Iceresistance]

This was from Yesterday, but there is a strong point on when there will be a confirmed north turn for Fiona.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1570817584592986112

[hurricaneCW]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/1020610120327118858/natl_2.png

The EPS is saying not so fast on Fish food.

Not trying to be that person but it has already impacted several areas and will continue to do so meaning it's not a fish.

It just won't impact the US

[Iceresistance]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/1020610120327118858/natl_2.png

The EPS is saying not so fast on Fish food.

Not trying to be that person but it has already impacted several areas and will continue to do so meaning it's not a fish.

It just won't impact the US

It would with High Surf and Rip Currents, Lorenzo in 2019 did that despite being over 1000 miles away from North Carolina's Outer Banks.

[caneman]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/1020610120327118858/natl_2.png

The EPS is saying not so fast on Fish food.

Not trying to be that person but it has already impacted several areas and will continue to do so meaning it's not a fish.

It just won't impact the US

I think people realize that. I see these type posts all the time. People mean fish as it relates to the U.S. Any more it seems people have to cross every t and dot every i when they speak or they'll be called out. It doesnt mean someone is wishing ill will on others or are being insensitive. People typically worry about impacts to them. Very few people would visit this forum if there were never a threat to the U.S.. and wouldn't even know what is going on in the islands.

[NDG]

12z TVCN right over SW tip of PR, I expect the NHC to move the track closer to PR on their next advisory.

[BlowHard]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/1020610120327118858/natl_2.png

The EPS is saying not so fast on Fish food.

Not trying to be that person but it has already impacted several areas and will continue to do so meaning it's not a fish.

It just won't impact the US

I think people realize that. I see these type posts all the time. People mean fish as it relates to the U.S. Any more it seems people have to cross every t and dot every i when they speak or they'll be called out. It doesnt mean someone is wishing ill will on others or are being insensitive. People typically worry about impacts to them. Very few people would visit this forum if there were never a threat to the U.S.. and wouldn't even know what is going on in the islands.[/quote

"I see these posts all the time"...well yes, because people already dealing with the storm long before YOU are reading them. Maybe you could just try to be more compassionate and DO BETTER.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think the models might be finally incorporating data from the post tropical typhoon that is pummeling Alaska, and the disturbance it is causing downstream. There are not as many data stations in the N Pacific so they receive more data once the storm comes on shore.
From the AP

Residents on Alaska’s vast and sparsely populated western coast braced Friday for a powerful storm that forecasters said could be one of the worst in recent history, threatening hurricane-force winds and high surf that could knock out power and cause flooding.

The storm is the remnants of what was Typhoon Merbok, which University of Alaska Fairbanks climate specialist Rick Thoman said is also influencing weather patterns far from Alaska — a rare late-summer storm now is expected to bring rain this weekend to drought-stricken parts of California.

“All this warm air that’s been brought north by this ex-typhoon is basically inducing a chain reaction in the jet stream downstream from Alaska,” he said.

“It’s a historic-level storm,” Thoman said of the system steaming toward Alaska. “In 10 years, people will be referring to the September 2022 storm as a benchmark storm.”

Hurricane-force winds were forecast in parts of the Bering Sea, while in the small communities of Elim and Koyuk, around 90 miles (145 kilometers) from the hub community of Nome, water levels could be up to 18 feet (5 meters) above the normal high tide line, according to the National Weather Service. Flood warnings were in effect until Monday in parts of northwest Alaska.

[tolakram]

Stick to model posts please. If you think a post is offensive report it, don't reply. I will gladly delete fish posts, I think it's a dumb term.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

HWRF got the satellite presentation down to a tee it appears:

[tolakram]

Overnight 0Z model runs. All ending at 168 hours









Why not NAVGEM too!

[tolakram]

6Z HWRF

I really feel like this model is only right when it happens to be right. Puerto Rico just upgraded to a Hurricane warning, be careful down there!

[tolakram]

6z model runs

[SoupBone]

12z TVCN right over SW tip of PR, I expect the NHC to move the track closer to PR on their next advisory.

https://i.imgur.com/JVKYlFG.gif

Man that's not good for PR. Do we have any PR posters here?

[caneman]

Can someone post the latest UKMET model please. Thanks

[OuterBanker]

12z TVCN right over SW tip of PR, I expect the NHC to move the track closer to PR on their next advisory.

https://i.imgur.com/JVKYlFG.gif

Man that's not good for PR. Do we have any PR posters here?

Yes, cycloneye.