ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

I think it's a stretch saying Fiona has 50kt sustained wind. It does look much more impressive on satellite now, though. Shear has really relaxed, allowing for good outflow. I don't know whether it can have any hurricane force winds by Puerto Rico, but any such winds would not likely be over land.

[NDG]

Anyone have the latest UKMET run?

Last night's UKMET had it 996mb over DR, completely dodging PR. This isnt the model thread so no posting the run here.

In that case I will post it for you on the model thread, it also shows an OTS track, a similar track to the Euro.

[hipshot]

Looking better and better every frame

https://i.imgur.com/LIDX0fi.jpeg

I hesitate to say it, but is that an eye trying to pop out in the white area right next to the pink near where we think the LLC is? I don't
know how to mark it up or I would circle it or something.

[caneman]

That's fine too. I take each storm individually and like to weigh all solutions. A link to a model page would also be great. Thanks

[NDG]

I think it's a stretch saying Fiona has 50kt sustained wind. It does look much more impressive on satellite now, though. Shear has really relaxed, allowing for good outflow. I don't know whether it can have any hurricane force winds by Puerto Rico, but any such winds would not likely be over land.

What about at the higher elevations of PR where many people live, wouldn't they experience higher winds than at SL?

[skyline385]

Anyone have the latest UKMET run?

Last night's UKMET had it 996mb over DR, completely dodging PR. This isnt the model thread so no posting the run here.

Can some please post the link on the model thread then. I'm not getting into modeling war or talk. I track each system individually and I give all models credance. Better yet, I'll go there to the model thread for the request

My bad on that actually, I accidently typed "no posting" instead of "not posting". I was just saying how I wasn't posting it here because its not the correct thread for it. I will post it in the models thread so that you can check it out.

[NDG]

Much more defined circulation on the latest pass.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Looking better and better every frame

https://i.imgur.com/LIDX0fi.jpeg

I hesitate to say it, but is that an eye trying to pop out in the white area right next to the pink near where we think the LLC is? I don't
know how to mark it up or I would circle it or something.

No, not an eye. It needs to build a core first.

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/cslocumwx/status/1571171905415135236

[skyline385]

This last CB almost goes up in a straight line without any rotation (like something along a wave axis), makes me wonder whats going on below the cloud tops

[chaser1]

Looks to me like we're seeing a fairly quick reorganization and what looks to be a smaller and tighter core in the making. If and when a truly tighter wind field occurs, and if the convective bursting continues to go unabatted along with an apperant decrease in forward motion as a result of decreased shear and pressure falls, then I think its entirely plausible for Ponce and other south facing PR coastling to potentially experience sustained wind as high as 90mph between tomorrow morning & mid-day.

[hipshot]

Looking better and better every frame

https://i.imgur.com/LIDX0fi.jpeg

I hesitate to say it, but is that an eye trying to pop out in the white area right next to the pink near where we think the LLC is? I don't
know how to mark it up or I would circle it or something.

No, not an eye. It needs to build a core first.

Yeah, after I posted that I had a "what were you thinking" moment.

[chaser1]

All quad outflow is seriously beginning to look classic

[cheezyWXguy]

This last CB almost goes up in a straight line without any rotation (like something along a wave axis), makes me wonder whats going on below the cloud tops

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/goes16_ir_07L_202209171355.gif

I believe that’s a band trying to set up on the east side, looks to me that the center is immediately west of that arc

[skyline385]

LLC still partially visible on the west but the outflow is looking great, going to organize itself quickly if it continues

[Jr0d]

Interesting that now it looks good on satellite, its not as strong as it looks, while it was stronger than it looked when she was naked. That said, I do think RI is a possibility in he near future before potential terrain interaction.



I think the door is shut now for an east coast hit from Fiona and any other storm that develops in the MDW. Perhaps a home grown system could make landfall from the east but thats doubtful. However if anything develops in the GoM later this season, it could be a problem.



I

[skyline385]

Interesting that now it looks good on satellite, its not as strong as it looks, while it was stronger than it looked when she was naked. That said, I do think RI is a possibility in he near future before potential terrain interaction.



I think the door is shut now for an east coast hit from Fiona and any other storm that develops in the MDW. Perhaps a home grown system could make landfall from the east but thats doubtful. However if anything develops in the GoM later this season, it could be a problem.



I

I think what we have seen with Earl and Fiona is that the environment is plenty favorable in the West Atlantic and the Caribbean OHC has been left untouched all season. Come October, we may end up seeing a sharp uptick in activity including CONUS landfalls.

[Teban54]

Per recon, looks like Fiona's LLC is getting better defined and pressure is falling again (1004 mb).

[ScottNAtlanta]

Per recon, looks like Fiona's LLC is getting better defined and pressure is falling again (1004 mb).

Dropsonde measured a pressure of 1003

[Iceresistance]

Hurricane Warning for Puerto Rico.

Luis! (Cycloneye) Please be safe!