Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (Is Invest 98L)
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Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (Is Invest 98L)
Iceresistance and myself have been following this since 48 hours ago, when it was producing plentiful convection in western Africa. There have been a good number of runs of various operational models as well as ensemble members taking this into the western basin as at least a weak surface low. About 9 hours ago, I posted in the TW thread that it appeared to me per satellite loops that there was a circulation at 11N, 23W, with impressive convection moving west.
This only waned a little after I last posted that. Now, check it out as we start to head toward DMAX, which is still 5-6 hours away in the E MDR. Convection has again blossomed in a circular pattern now centered on 11N, 24W. It looks even more impressive than it looked early today. This has the makings of a sleeper as the NHC doesn't mention this in the TWO.
By the way, I'm not sure if this is directly associated with AEW #40.
This only waned a little after I last posted that. Now, check it out as we start to head toward DMAX, which is still 5-6 hours away in the E MDR. Convection has again blossomed in a circular pattern now centered on 11N, 24W. It looks even more impressive than it looked early today. This has the makings of a sleeper as the NHC doesn't mention this in the TWO.
By the way, I'm not sure if this is directly associated with AEW #40.
Last edited by LarryWx on Mon Sep 19, 2022 10:14 am, edited 7 times in total.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: Tropical Wave South of the Cape Verde Islands
LarryWx wrote:Iceresistance and myself have been following this since 48 hours ago, when it was producing plentiful convection in western Africa. There have been a good number of runs of various operational models as well as ensemble members taking this into the western basin as at least a weak surface low. About 9 hours ago, I posted in the TW thread that it appeared to me per satellite loops that there was a circulation at 11N, 23W, with impressive convection moving west.
This only waned a little after I last posted that. Now, check it out as we start to head toward DMAX, which is still 5-6 hours away in the E MDR. Convection has again blossomed in a circular pattern now centered on 11N, 24W. It looks even more impressive than it looked early today. This has the makings of a sleeper as the NHC doesn't mention this in the TWO.
By the way, I'm not sure if this is directly associated with AEW #40.
https://i.imgur.com/cEQDaq0.jpg
Yes, it's Wave #40 per 2022 Tropical Waves thread by Luis.
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Re: Tropical Wave South of the Cape Verde Islands
Today this looks less impressive as of DMIN although it is starting to refire convection near 11N, 30W. Still watching as quite a few ensemble members still keep this intact near the Caribbean.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cape Verde Islands
I'm keeping an eye on this. Looks pretty good and a lower latitude than most that have fizzled.
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cape Verde Islands
I feel this feature needs to be monitored, I see this as a possible Caribbean cruiser if it develops
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cape Verde Islands
Just had a discussion about this. Models might not be "seeing" it yet. Next 24-36 hours we will have a much better idea of what this is about.
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cape Verde Islands
LemieT wrote:Just had a discussion about this. Models might not be "seeing" it yet. Next 24-36 hours we will have a much better idea of what this is about.
The 0zGFS seems to form a low from what I think is this feature in the GOM in the long range, could be something to watch in coming days
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cape Verde Islands
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 31W, south of
16N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 07N to 13N and between 23W and 34W.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 31W, south of
16N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 07N to 13N and between 23W and 34W.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cape Verde Islands
The wave at 35W might be another sleeper like Fiona (kind of). Models haven’t done much with it in a few days, possibly due to outflow from Fiona, but it looks like it’ll continue due west into the Caribbean. Some EPS members have Caribbean development in the 7-10 day range. We’re nearing the time of year where this part of the basin becomes favored, and the waters west of 65W have been untapped since Bonnie in early July.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cape Verde Islands
GFS has a "nice" opener for October in fantasy range. (Comes up from W. Caribbean around the 28th)
final frame:
final frame:
Last edited by BobHarlem on Sat Sep 17, 2022 6:36 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cape Verde Islands
No please, not during Halloween Horror Nights
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cape Verde Islands
Funny how it also heads straight for SFL being yanked by the trough but then gets cut off at the last second. Anyways, there seems to be zero support on the EPS for now so probably another GFS phantom.
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Re: Tropical Wave Midway Between Africa & the Windward Islands
Sofla is gfs long range default solutionskyline385 wrote:Funny how it also heads straight for SFL being yanked by the trough but then gets cut off at the last second. Anyways, there seems to be zero support on the EPS for now so probably another GFS phantom.
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Re: Tropical Wave Midway Between Africa & the Windward Islands
skyline385 wrote:Funny how it also heads straight for SFL being yanked by the trough but then gets cut off at the last second. Anyways, there seems to be zero support on the EPS for now so probably another GFS phantom.
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I would not say zero support. It has a few members onboard. Looks like a sleeper wave from the MDR.
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Re: Tropical Wave Midway Between Africa & the Windward Islands
If the GFs is to be believed, this might not do much for 7 to 10 days but near that time is when this wave comes to life with a few EUro ensemble members so I wouldn’t take my eye off this until it’s gone or in Central America
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Re: Tropical Wave Midway Between Africa & the Windward Islands
That would be a major hurricane strike on the Keys and then a threat to the North or Northeast Gulf Coast. Let's see if things progress in future runs.
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Re: Tropical Wave Midway Between Africa & the Windward Islands
The jury is still out, but so far the GFS has been doing well this year picking up on the weaknesses in the ridge pattern with Earl and Fiona. It was the first one showing a more NW move over PR which has now begun with Fiona. Let's see if it can overcome it's development bias in the W. Caribbean. At least it seems to have a decent handle of the upper pattern so far. I see it's back to development again in the W. Caribbean.
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Re: Tropical Wave Midway Between Africa & the Windward Islands
12z GFS, Euro, and CMC are now starting to develop this in the WCar.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: Tropical Wave Midway Between Africa & the Windward Islands
Folks looks like we have some agreement. Euro onboard with CMC and GFS on development in W. Caribbean from the wave in the MDR.
GFS most progressive with the trough which is most believable this season with it's track record and Euro and CMC being too far west this year.
GFS most progressive with the trough which is most believable this season with it's track record and Euro and CMC being too far west this year.
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Re: Tropical Wave Near 42W
This AEW is now near 42W (very weak low probably ~11N) continuing westbound and has been pretty inactive the last 2 days as dry, stable air has been interacting with it. There's only scattered convection with it now. The 12Z Euro as posted above does have this as a weak low in the W Caribbean 9/26, which then moves NW to the Gulf of Honduras on 9/28. By then, the W Caribbean season is already starting to get into full swing climowise. So, something to keep an eye on.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.