ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

Looks to me like dry air is destroying the core and its probably going to be tough for it to recover before PR, which is great news for them from a wind standpoint. Obviously the rain impacts could still be pretty brutal.

That being said however, I think it'll get it act together eventually, hopefully it waits long enough to clear the islands before doing so

[tolakram]

floater microphysics https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-ntmicro-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[InfernoFlameCat]

The radar presentation is rapidly improving. Its beginning the process of filling in the eyewall

[tolakram]

saved loop

[tolakram]

[Iceresistance]

There is an unflagged 55 knot SMFR on Recon.

[Iceresistance]

Supports 997 or 996 MB.


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Dropsonde-6-in-Fiona.png

[galaxy401]

I feel like people overestimate dry air intrusions. Whenever it gets brought up, it's suddenly "a ton of dry air". Fiona, to me, is probably just gone through D-min but maybe I am wrong.

[CrazyC83]

It looks to be 996 mb now. Either 50 or 55 kt would be reasonable for the intensity.

[skyline385]

I feel like people overestimate dry air intrusions. Whenever it gets brought up, it's suddenly "a ton of dry air". Fiona, to me, is probably just gone through D-min but maybe I am wrong.

Ehh you can see it on Water Vapor, IR and Radar and the models predicted it as well in the short range. It will eventually recover obviously but right now there is an intrusion of dry air into the core. This tweet has a longer radar loop from earlier today.

 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1571296457247924225

[tolakram]

Not sure what to say about that tweet. He's looking at all the guidance and doubting it. That's great. Recon shows continued slow pressure drop. Dry air intrusion will continue to be a problem IF there's shear to push it into the core, otherwise the surrounding environment looks to be moist enough.



Drop 4 of the current recon:


Drop 8



source (time sensitive): https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

[Sciencerocks]

[wxman57]

Take note that recon just passed by St. Croix and reported 40kt SFMR. St. Croix has not reported a wind above 20 kts all evening. I've never trusted SFMR winds. They calibrate the instrument in clear air. Looking like cycloneye in San Juan won't even see any TS sustained wind. Lots of rain possible tomorrow, though, and even moderate TS winds will knock most of the power out.

[Nimbus]

Weather observation at Christiansted, St Croix claims winds are starting to pick up in the squalls SE 33 mph.
Surface pressure down to 996 but if this makes landfall at 990 in Puerto Rico there might only be a few hurricane gusts.
Power might be out for just a few days as long as it crosses the island fairly quickly.

[tolakram]

saved loop. mid level circulation seems to be wobbling north.

[tolakram]

Well NW of last fix

[sikkar]

Looks like slowly organizing on radar.

[skyline385]

Surprised they went with 999mb with 23 kts winds at the surface

[Landy]

New convection wrapping around the center according to VDM fix. Looks like the hiccup Fiona went through this afternoon is close to being over if not already. Interesting night ahead...

[Landy]

Continued improvement on radar as well.