Ensemble means point to +PNA/-NAO in the MR

[Stormsfury]

Time sensitive - November 13th, 2003 - 10:10 pm -
Simply put, that begins to big changes that translate in the pattern ...

PNA indicies and the forecasted ensemble mean ...


NAO indicies and the forecasted ensemble mean ...


The CMC ensembles are hinting at the change to more of a trough in the Great Plains instead of the Western States with that dreaded SE ridge (for winter weather lovers) ...
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSC ... z/f240.gif
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Mode ... mbles.html

The GFS ensembles also are showing the change.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGT_12z/f240.gif

The 8-10 Day EURO average 3 day mean showing QUITE a Midwestern Trough ... which is pretty darn steep for the average of 3 days ...

Day 8-10 Average 3 day EURO/ECMWF mean

There's potential for quite a cool down in the MR/LR by the end of November ... after this latest quick hitting cold snap exits stage right and briefly warms back up (particularly in the Southeast) ...

SF

[Colin]

Thanks for the analysis SF!

[JCT777]

Anything that points to a cooldown in my area is good news!

[ColdFront77]

The warmer it is in the southeast, especially Florida the more of a chance of "dry season showers and thunderstorms." The latest forecast is calling for thunderstorms on Tuesday into Tuesday night; (yesterday, I believe the chance of this activity was Wednesday).

The cold, dry air across the Sunshine State is very dry. Temperatures have made it down into the mid to upper 20's a few times in the early morning, the last few January without the change of precipitation, (of course).

[therock1811]

NAO is going to the tank...interesting...