ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Radar is back. saved loop

https://i.imgur.com/DLl2AkD.gif

That northern eyewall looks ferocious.

Wait until mid week, you will see a proper eyewall

[chaser1]

Suffice it to say, any farmers market around Rojo Cabo has likely closed for the day Seriously though, a good day for those in Western & Southern P.R. to be home and stay off the streets (especially in creek & river flood prone areas).

[LarryWx]

Fun fact, this is the first September since 2017 to contain only hurricanes (at least so far). All seasons since then have had Septembers with at least a few tropical storms at this point in the month. But it seems like 2022 is more about quality than quantity. Let's see whether Fiona actually lives up to its MH forecast unlike Earl.

Looking at the prior 10 years, the average number of hurricanes from storms born in Sept is only two. So, Sept of 2022 has already exceeded that mark with three. Of the last 10 years, only 2020 had more with four and 2022 still has another 12 days to go.

Fiona's ACE is likely going to end up quite impressive.

[Sciencerocks]

[aspen]

AF303 is doing a SE to NW pass and will probably fly through where radar says the max winds are. It’s almost at the LLC with an extrapolated pressure of 985.2mb and falling.

Edit: 983.9mb extrap, going through the NE eyewall instead of the NW

[NDG]

AF303 is doing a SE to NW pass and will probably fly through where radar says the max winds are. It’s almost at the LLC with an extrapolated pressure of 985.2mb and falling.

Edit: 983.9mb extrap, going through the NE eyewall instead of the NW

No, it came in from the SE so it didn't pass over the NE eyewall where the strongest winds are on radar. Next pass.

[NDG]

Buoy just offshore from Ponce PR now reporting wind gusts of 65 mph with a pressure of 997mb.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... m=E&tz=STN

[tolakram]

saved loop

[tolakram]

saved loop

[IsabelaWeather]

Interesting update from SJU AFD:

So far, the municipality of Maunabo
has received 4.33 inches of rain, and Yabucoa has reported wind
gusts up to 91 mph.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=SJU&issuedby=SJU&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

[Hurricaneman]

I don’t know if my eyes are deceiving me or does it look like it might be changing direction to more of a wnw to nw direction

[tolakram]

I don’t know if my eyes are deceiving me or does it look like it might be changing direction to more of a wnw to nw direction

Same, looks like a north / nw movement and landfall soon.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Fun fact, this is the first September since 2017 to contain only hurricanes (at least so far). All seasons since then have had Septembers with at least a few tropical storms at this point in the month. But it seems like 2022 is more about quality than quantity. Let's see whether Fiona actually lives up to its MH forecast unlike Earl.

Looking at the prior 10 years, the average number of hurricanes from storms born in Sept is only two. So, Sept of 2022 has already exceeded that mark with three. Of the last 10 years, only 2020 had more with four and 2022 still has another 12 days to go.

Fiona's ACE is likely going to end up quite impressive.

First... both 2020 and 2021 had 3 named hurricanes in September, 2020 actually had four. I know you said "average", however predicated on the previous 2 seasons, it's nothing special. By this time 2021 had already had 2 majors. Now with 12 days left it may well equal 2020 but only time will tell. And while Fiona is developing quite well lately, I doubt she'll come close to the ACE of SAM or TEDDY in the previous years. Personally, (re. the previous quote) I don't consider storm intensity "quality", but using both criteria both 2020 and 2021 had as great or greater quality and much greater quantity. I love observing these incredibly powerful forces of nature; but equally I respect them as dangerous potential killers and would just as soon see them all stay far out at sea where we can observe and discuss them, without the cost in terms of human tragedy they can and often do exact. Right now my thoughts and prayers are with the good people in Puerto Rico.

[Mob1]

 https://twitter.com/ValeriaAponteTV/status/1571536411794481154




Ponce looks to get him pretty hard over the next few hours, velocities are really increasing over southern PR now.

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/proffernandez/status/1571538095899541506

[tolakram]

saved loop

[NDG]

This is a great live webcam from the Hard Rock Hotel in Punta Cana to watch later today as Fiona approaches them.

https://www.hardrockhotels.com/punta-cana/webcam.aspx

[tolakram]

Not to the center yet

[tolakram]

Movement still NW, looks like this will cross SW PR unless it changes direction at the last minute.

[NDG]

103 mph wind gust in Ponce at a station on the coast.

57G103

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries? ... 1&hours=72

 https://twitter.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1571542832619442178