ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

Fiona has shifted west again. its trying to thread the needle.

[NDG]

NWS office in Puerto Rico believes the reports of 100 mph wind gusts from the Marina's station.

 https://twitter.com/NWSSanJuan/status/1571545619226935296

[InfernoFlameCat]

100mph gusts support 80 mph sustained.

[NDG]

Fiona has shifted west again. its trying to thread the needle.

Is going for the area of less resistance, classic move.

[Iceresistance]

Fiona has shifted west again. its trying to thread the needle.

Or trying to avoid the mountainous terrain as much as possible.

[InfernoFlameCat]

This does not bode well for ponce. More time spent under hurricane force winds than if it had continued its northwest trajectory.

[tropicwatch]

Radar indicated velocities 85+mph.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[aspen]

Looks like landfall is imminent on visible imagery. The center jumped a bit north again on the last recon pass.

[galaxy401]

Basing off the observations, I think Fiona is going to make landfall at 75 kts intensity.

Update: Yep, the NHC upped it to that intensity.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Yeah. This was no OTS. It also poses a strong threat to Bermuda. Major hurricane threat.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Fiona is making landfall on the 18th of September. Maria made landfall on the 20th.

[jlauderdal]

Fiona is making landfall on the 18th of September. Maria made landfall on the 20th.

And we get season cancel posts in july and august, only takes one too change your life.

[aspen]

Fiona looks like a storm that, without any land interaction, would be within 12 hours of becoming a major. Hopefully the HWRF's predicted shift to the west verifies and lessens potential impacts in PR.

[tolakram]

Radar sending sporadic updates

[psyclone]

Fiona is generating an extensive area of banded convection well to the east. If that convective configuration remains intact as the system pulls away from PR, a major flash flood situation may evolve there and in the Dominican especially on those south facing slopes with orographic enhancement. This system has really become an overperformer.

[tolakram]

It does appear to be pushing off the higher terrain a bit, more west than north now.

[jlauderdal]

It does appear to be pushing off the higher terrain a bit, more west than north now.

Hurricanes can bounce off land including mountains. We saw one bounce on and off the southern coast of Jamaica multiple times in one day.

[Iceresistance]

Flash Flood Warning in effect for all of Eastern Puerto Rico

Last radar scans have a more easterly direction, could miss the mountains in PR.

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
200 PM AST Sun Sep 18 2022

...EYE OF FIONA VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF PUERTO RICO...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 66.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES