ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/DavidBegnaud/status/1571586564840648704

That looks like the same bridge i posted the video of above breaking off. The original post said it was installed after Maria.


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[Hurricane Mike]

6pm Video on Fiona
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bg-l1k4xgL0

[ThetaE]

Terrible situation unfolding in Puerto Rico.

As for the approach to the DR... I mean, Fiona has proven itself to be pretty wobble-prone today. I don't think wobbles are easy to predict with current models, but FWIW the HWRF has been consistent in showing, for the last few runs, a sizable wobble to the north around the island of Mona, so it is still plausible, if difficult, for a close avoidance. I do think a north coast scrape is most likely.

[Sciencerocks]

Looks west to me

[Iceresistance]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/8739/mab7iD.gif

Looks west to me

Hold up! Is it moving almost due west?

[Landy]

Now in the storm.

[Sciencerocks]

[Audrey2Katrina]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/8739/mab7iD.gif

Looks west to me

Hold up! Is it moving almost due west?

Looks like it to me; however this storm's moves have been quite erratic for some time now. Perhaps it's just a protracted jog west before correcting itself, because if it takes on the mountains on Hispaniola, it's in for quite a battle.

[aspen]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/3994/1wt6DA.gif

That short amount of time over Puerto Rico was enough to totally disrupt the eyewall, as satellite imagery suggested. However, recon just found an extrapolated pressure down to 981.4mb, so this hasn’t really weakened Fiona.

[weeniepatrol]

[ronjon]

Looks to be stair stepping west and with short jogs to the north eventually from long range radar loop. Will be close on a second landfall in DR.

[Landy]

Fiona has deepened. Pressure gradient looks good.

[Hammy]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/3994/1wt6DA.gif

That short amount of time over Puerto Rico was enough to totally disrupt the eyewall, as satellite imagery suggested. However, recon just found an extrapolated pressure down to 981.4mb, so this hasn’t really weakened Fiona.

There's still 15-20kt of shear from the southwest as well, moreso it seems there was just disruption enough to allow some dry air entrainment. In fact SFMR barely supports hurricane intensity now, if at all

[NDG]

Fiona will make landfall south of Punta Cana if it doesn’t change course soon, Josh M is heading south.

[aspen]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/3994/1wt6DA.gif

That short amount of time over Puerto Rico was enough to totally disrupt the eyewall, as satellite imagery suggested. However, recon just found an extrapolated pressure down to 981.4mb, so this hasn’t really weakened Fiona.

There's still 15-20kt of shear from the southwest as well, moreso it seems there was just disruption enough to allow some dry air entrainment. In fact SFMR barely supports hurricane intensity now, if at all

So in other words, sort of a repeat of last night’s convective warming phase.

[MarioProtVI]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/3994/1wt6DA.gif

That short amount of time over Puerto Rico was enough to totally disrupt the eyewall, as satellite imagery suggested. However, recon just found an extrapolated pressure down to 981.4mb, so this hasn’t really weakened Fiona.

There's still 15-20kt of shear from the southwest as well, moreso it seems there was just disruption enough to allow some dry air entrainment. In fact SFMR barely supports hurricane intensity now, if at all

Shoaling is a thing. Would trust FL for now until it pulls away from land into deeper waters.

[NDG]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/3994/1wt6DA.gif

That short amount of time over Puerto Rico was enough to totally disrupt the eyewall, as satellite imagery suggested. However, recon just found an extrapolated pressure down to 981.4mb, so this hasn’t really weakened Fiona.

There's still 15-20kt of shear from the southwest as well, moreso it seems there was just disruption enough to allow some dry air entrainment. In fact SFMR barely supports hurricane intensity now, if at all

SFMR caught 64 knot winds on the SW eyewall, there’s got to be stronger winds somewhere if the side was so strong.

[Mob1]

That convection rotating in off the ocean into PR all night will be absolutely devastating. I don't know how to attach a radar loop so I can't add that.

[aspen]

Eye drop of 984/7 supports 983mb.

Fiona’s post-landfall structure isn’t that great. There’s a double wind maxima in the SW quadrant and a band of 60 kt FL winds far from the center in the NE quadrant. It’s possible Fiona ends up as a larger storm after it deals with the Greater Antilles and whatever else is affecting it, and will probably spend most of tomorrow getting its act together again.

[Hammy]

That short amount of time over Puerto Rico was enough to totally disrupt the eyewall, as satellite imagery suggested. However, recon just found an extrapolated pressure down to 981.4mb, so this hasn’t really weakened Fiona.

There's still 15-20kt of shear from the southwest as well, moreso it seems there was just disruption enough to allow some dry air entrainment. In fact SFMR barely supports hurricane intensity now, if at all

Shoaling is a thing. Would trust FL for now until it pulls away from land into deeper waters.

Shoaling causes inflation of wind values in a similar way seen with heavy rain, so if there's shoaling occurring, the winds are even lower than what SFMR shows.

That short amount of time over Puerto Rico was enough to totally disrupt the eyewall, as satellite imagery suggested. However, recon just found an extrapolated pressure down to 981.4mb, so this hasn’t really weakened Fiona.

There's still 15-20kt of shear from the southwest as well, moreso it seems there was just disruption enough to allow some dry air entrainment. In fact SFMR barely supports hurricane intensity now, if at all

So in other words, sort of a repeat of last night’s convective warming phase.

Seems like the case at the moment. And since Fiona really seems to want to follow Hortense's track from 1996, it may be another 24-30 hours before the structure recovers, especially if it interacts with the Dominican Republic as Hortense did. But strengthening will likely be speedy afterwards.