ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#921 Postby toad strangler » Sun Sep 18, 2022 6:46 pm

NDG wrote:Fiona will make landfall south of Punta Cana if it doesn’t change course soon, Josh M is heading south.


He should have been in SW PR but you can’t win em all. He will call it a hit and technically it will most likely be but he’s not going to see the worst of Fiona. Cycloneye probably has and still is.
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ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#922 Postby skyline385 » Sun Sep 18, 2022 6:47 pm

Mob1 wrote:That convection rotating in off the ocean into PR all night will be absolutely devastating. I don't know how to attach a radar loop so I can't add that.

Can see the effects of it already in some regions with 21+ inches of precipitation. Lots of 16 inches (yellow) and 10-12 inches (blue/purple) regions of precipitation around it as well.

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#923 Postby tropicwatch » Sun Sep 18, 2022 6:53 pm

Fiona definitely not playing nice with the forecast. Significantly west of track currently.

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#924 Postby drezee » Sun Sep 18, 2022 7:06 pm

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#925 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sun Sep 18, 2022 7:11 pm

Fiona appears to be moving west- southwest. we could see significant west shifts now. Fiona may get more disrupted, causing it to be weaker than otherwise, slowing down, and missing the trough that was supposed to pick it up.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#926 Postby Hammy » Sun Sep 18, 2022 7:20 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Fiona appears to be moving west- southwest. we could see significant west shifts now. Fiona may get more disrupted, causing it to be weaker than otherwise, slowing down, and missing the trough that was supposed to pick it up.


Canadian model still shows it being picked up, and it's been consistently west of the actual track, even now.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#927 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Sep 18, 2022 7:25 pm

This is likely to make a landfall in the DR.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#928 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Sep 18, 2022 7:25 pm

Hammy wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Fiona appears to be moving west- southwest. we could see significant west shifts now. Fiona may get more disrupted, causing it to be weaker than otherwise, slowing down, and missing the trough that was supposed to pick it up.


Canadian model still shows it being picked up, and it's been consistently west of the actual track, even now.


I would be shocked if the earlier Canadian model runs actually verified with this kind of westward movement.

A DR Landfall is now inevitable unless she finds a way southward, away from the mountains.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#929 Postby tropicwatch » Sun Sep 18, 2022 7:28 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:This is likely to make a landfall in the DR.
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/1353/cnSii1.gif


Due west movement still.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#930 Postby skyline385 » Sun Sep 18, 2022 7:28 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Fiona appears to be moving west- southwest. we could see significant west shifts now. Fiona may get more disrupted, causing it to be weaker than otherwise, slowing down, and missing the trough that was supposed to pick it up.


There is only one member from both the EPS and GEFS combined where the trough misses a weak system coming out of DR. I imagine the probability of it missing the trough is really low now especially because the trough has been very strong in the last few runs.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#931 Postby sma10 » Sun Sep 18, 2022 7:30 pm

Hammy wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Fiona appears to be moving west- southwest. we could see significant west shifts now. Fiona may get more disrupted, causing it to be weaker than otherwise, slowing down, and missing the trough that was supposed to pick it up.


Canadian model still shows it being picked up, and it's been consistently west of the actual track, even now.


I agree. The only way I see the 1 or 2% edge cases from the ensembles verifying would be if this tracked way further south than anticipated into DR, and the center gets pinballed all over the place and happens to emerge far to the west
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#932 Postby pgoss11 » Sun Sep 18, 2022 7:35 pm

I only hope the extended westward track will spare Bermuda.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#933 Postby skyline385 » Sun Sep 18, 2022 7:36 pm

Also the hurricane models had the center dropping as low as 18N close to 68W before bouncing back towards DR, Fiona is moving exactly as predicted

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#934 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Sep 18, 2022 7:38 pm

Lowest Extrapolated is 981.6 MB
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#935 Postby aspen » Sun Sep 18, 2022 7:42 pm

The newest center fix is SW of the previous one. I wonder if Fiona’s center might be doing a tiny loop before heading back in a NW direction.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#936 Postby drezee » Sun Sep 18, 2022 7:43 pm

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#937 Postby skyline385 » Sun Sep 18, 2022 7:46 pm

skyline385 wrote:
Mob1 wrote:That convection rotating in off the ocean into PR all night will be absolutely devastating. I don't know how to attach a radar loop so I can't add that.

Can see the effects of it already in some regions with 21+ inches of precipitation. Lots of 16 inches (yellow) and 10-12 inches (blue/purple) regions of precipitation around it as well.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220918/397c0a57ad00d0ada1b2fe75366ea353.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220918/e77ecb587891e4bc7e1c7d575ae988a6.gif


This matches the radar snapshots from earlier

 https://twitter.com/gdimeweather/status/1571657342495903744


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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#938 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Sep 18, 2022 7:56 pm

I kinda have a hard time believing this, but is Fiona going on RI or VRI already??


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https://s5.gifyu.com/images/NW-Eyewall-Dropsonde-on-Fiona.png
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#939 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 18, 2022 7:58 pm

The center seems well depicted on IR and following the Euro's forecast almost exactly.

Live IR https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-13-200-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Euro snippet. Just one model, not the official forecast. Go to model thread for model discussion.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#940 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sun Sep 18, 2022 8:00 pm

Iceresistance wrote:I kinda have a hard time believing this, but is Fiona going on RI or VRI already??


https://s5.gifyu.com/images/NW-Eyewall-Dropsonde-on-Fiona.png
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/NW-Eyewall-Dropsonde-on-Fiona.png


So that's saying we are looking at 100mph winds in the eyewall
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