ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[galaxy401]

Eastern Puerto Rico, particularly near Guayama, is still getting torrential downpours... Wonder if 30+ inches is possible.

[cheezyWXguy]

I kinda have a hard time believing this, but is Fiona going on RI or VRI already??


https://s5.gifyu.com/images/NW-Eyewall-Dropsonde-on-Fiona.png
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/NW-Eyewall-Dropsonde-on-Fiona.png

Aren't these instantaneous winds/gusts and not sustained though?

Yep, and an instantaneous gust to 86kt seems reasonable to me for a low end cat1 that’s maintaining or slightly strengthening. That profile is interesting though, it suggests to me that the system is well stacked and winds are mixing efficiently to the surface. It could start RI fairly soon after leaving Hispaniola, provided the inevitable landfall isn’t too disruptive.

[tolakram]

Recon almost to the center. I think Fiona has gone rogue, looks like it will be even further west.

[tolakram]

Looks the same on radar, so I assume the LLC and MLC are well stacked.

020530 1752N 06800W 6968 02996 9809 +149 +083 209026 031 038 001 00

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[blp]

https://i.imgur.com/lz0qco4.png

Looks SW on this pass. This could be starting to slowdown to make the turn. I bet when that fist of convection on the SW side swings around it will drag the center more toward the NW.

[Landy]

https://i.imgur.com/lz0qco4.png

Looks like Fiona's slowed down based on the pass done just now. Guessing this means the turn to the NW is coming up pretty soon.

[skyline385]

Looks the same on radar, so I assume the LLC and MLC are well stacked.

020530 1752N 06800W 6968 02996 9809 +149 +083 209026 031 038 001 00

In the recon plot, the lowest pressure of 980.9mb doesn’t show a reversal in wind direction. That suggests that it’s still tilted a bit from shear.

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/lz0qco4.png

Looks like Fiona has gone a little more south than west this time. I still think it’s going to make a tiny loop as it slows down and starts heading NW again. The next pass will determine if this is the case.

[ElectricStorm]

Eye drop has 982/6 so supports around 981-982, definitely lower than earlier, although so far the winds look the same.
Will be interesting to see if this turns north quick enough to avoid the mountains of DR

[weeniepatrol]

Looks the same on radar, so I assume the LLC and MLC are well stacked.

020530 1752N 06800W 6968 02996 9809 +149 +083 209026 031 038 001 00

https://i.imgur.com/c7VNvpY.png

In the recon plot, the lowest pressure of 980.9mb doesn’t show a reversal in wind direction. That suggests that it’s still tilted a bit from shear.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah, the lowest extrap is displaced SE from the 700mb low (recon is flying at 700mb)

[weeniepatrol]

outflow

Upper low to the NE is well-positioned for ventilation

[Hammy]

https://i.imgur.com/lz0qco4.png

Looks like Fiona has gone a little more south than west this time. I still think it’s going to make a tiny loop as it slows down and starts heading NW again. The next pass will determine if this is the case.

I was wondering the same. There's been increasingly little detectable motion on radar and the last pass also seems to show less movement

[skyline385]

13 is the last eye drop location (8 was the previous one), looks like the heading is still SW

[tolakram]

Radar is skipping and attenuated from rainfall near radar site, but still looks west.

[weeniepatrol]

Latest dropsonde. Little bit lower.

[hipshot]

13 is the last eye drop location (8 was the previous one), looks like the heading is still SW

https://i.imgur.com/Le3nlxF.png

So, tell me again what it is that's going to pull this storm to the NW today. I am certainly
no weather expert but it sure seems it doesn't want to go that way and if it doesn't turn
soon, things are going to change drastically.

[tolakram]

Josh Morgerman (iCyclone) is in Boca de Yuma, tip of cyan arrow.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Josh Morgerman (iCyclone) is in Boca de Yuma, tip of cyan arrow.

https://i.imgur.com/nCPeUSN.png

This guy moves around. geez.