How strong will Fiona get?

[tolakram]

poll ends in 2 days

[Iceresistance]

A 3, 115-125 mph.

[Hurricane2022]

C4. 130 - 140 mph

[kevin]

A mid-grade cat 4, 120 kt, 943 mbar

[Iceresistance]

Well, we know that a TS peak is out of the window now.

[Landy]

Voted that Fiona would be our first major way in a poll a few months back, so I'll vote for C4.

[Chris90]

Voted C4.

120kts / 939mb.

[skyline385]

Going with 100 kts Cat 3, Fiona is going to be in the same environment as Earl and the hurricane models show it develop a large eye similar to Earl, meaning pressure drop might again end up being used to sustain a large wind field.

[ElectricStorm]

Cat 4
115kts/948mb

[Hammy]

Going with 100 kts Cat 3, Fiona is going to be in the same environment as Earl and the hurricane models show it develop a large eye similar to Earl, meaning pressure drop might again end up being used to sustain a large wind field.

Earl's environment wasn't the problem, the convective collapse gutted the inner core and it was never able to reestablish itself, so it expanded rather than strengthening as the pressure dropped.

I agree it won't likely exceed a 3, but that's more because the shear is going to increase, and the models have been trending slightly higher pressure with each run.

[skyline385]

Going with 100 kts Cat 3, Fiona is going to be in the same environment as Earl and the hurricane models show it develop a large eye similar to Earl, meaning pressure drop might again end up being used to sustain a large wind field.

Earl's environment wasn't the problem, the convective collapse gutted the inner core and it was never able to reestablish itself, so it expanded rather than strengthening as the pressure dropped.

I agree it won't likely exceed a 3, but that's more because the shear is going to increase, and the models have been trending slightly higher pressure with each run.

I don't think convective collapse was a problem until Earl was up high in the latitudes, however the symptoms of it's large core were showing up early including the broad pressure gradient that me and several others commented on in the discussion thread and the fact that during it's entire intensification process, the winds were always underperforming compared to it's pressure drop.

Sent from my LM-V405 using Tapatalk

[tolakram]

Going with 100 kts Cat 3, Fiona is going to be in the same environment as Earl and the hurricane models show it develop a large eye similar to Earl, meaning pressure drop might again end up being used to sustain a large wind field.

Earl's environment wasn't the problem, the convective collapse gutted the inner core and it was never able to reestablish itself, so it expanded rather than strengthening as the pressure dropped.

I agree it won't likely exceed a 3, but that's more because the shear is going to increase, and the models have been trending slightly higher pressure with each run.

I don't think convective collapse was a problem until it was way high in the latitudes, however the symptoms of it's large core were showing up early including the broad pressure gradient that me and several others commented on in the discussion thread and the fact that during it's entire intensification process, the winds were always underperforming compared to it's pressure drop.

Sent from my LM-V405 using Tapatalk

The convective collapse was noted in the discussion when earl, while finally experiencing less windshear, stopped intensifying. That discussion is here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/a ... .024.shtml?

You can read all the discussions in the archive: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/EARL.shtml?

Earl did not do anything unusual, in fact it behaved more like expected, with the models all predicting something that was rare and in fact never happened.

While it is relatively rare to
see such an intense hurricane at that latitude in the forecast
period, the guidance support, plus the favorable environment of Earl
being positioned in the right entrance region of a upper-level jet
streak ahead of the trough should provide both good dynamical
support on top of the favorable thermodynamic environment by the
warm SSTs.

Earl was a sheared storm and constantly entrained dry air due to shear. Nothing unusual in my opinion. If we are going to see a C3 or C4 from Fiona it's going to have to happen while still near the Bahamas, again in my opinion.

[aspen]

Going with 100 kts Cat 3, Fiona is going to be in the same environment as Earl and the hurricane models show it develop a large eye similar to Earl, meaning pressure drop might again end up being used to sustain a large wind field.

Earl's environment wasn't the problem, the convective collapse gutted the inner core and it was never able to reestablish itself, so it expanded rather than strengthening as the pressure dropped.

I agree it won't likely exceed a 3, but that's more because the shear is going to increase, and the models have been trending slightly higher pressure with each run.

I haven’t noticed any noticeable change in the models’ intensity outputs. The GFS, HWRF, HMON, and HAFS still get this into the low 940s/high 930s or lower; even the ICON gets down into the 940s.

[skyline385]

Earl's environment wasn't the problem, the convective collapse gutted the inner core and it was never able to reestablish itself, so it expanded rather than strengthening as the pressure dropped.

I agree it won't likely exceed a 3, but that's more because the shear is going to increase, and the models have been trending slightly higher pressure with each run.

I don't think convective collapse was a problem until it was way high in the latitudes, however the symptoms of it's large core were showing up early including the broad pressure gradient that me and several others commented on in the discussion thread and the fact that during it's entire intensification process, the winds were always underperforming compared to it's pressure drop.

Sent from my LM-V405 using Tapatalk

The convective collapse was noted in the discussion when earl, while finally experiencing less windshear, stopped intensifying. That discussion is here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/a ... .024.shtml?

You can read all the discussions in the archive: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/EARL.shtml?

Earl did not do anything unusual, in fact it behaved more like expected, with the models all predicting something that was rare and in fact never happened.

While it is relatively rare to
see such an intense hurricane at that latitude in the forecast
period, the guidance support, plus the favorable environment of Earl
being positioned in the right entrance region of a upper-level jet
streak ahead of the trough should provide both good dynamical
support on top of the favorable thermodynamic environment by the
warm SSTs.

Earl was a sheared storm and constantly entrained dry air due to shear. Nothing unusual in my opinion. If we are going to see a C3 or C4 from Fiona it's going to have to happen while still near the Bahamas, again in my opinion.

I remember that discussion, it mentioned that the shear at that point was low (less than 10 kts) and that the dry air intrusion was unexpected, it also mentioned that Earl had 36 hours still left before favorable conditions subsided. It was also after that discussion that the recon got there and found a broad pressure gradient with a large wind field.

Fiona will be a similar case (in my opinion), its peak will have to be before it starts recurving around the Bahamas, after that all models show the wind field expand significantly as it gains a ridiculous forward speed from the trough interaction.

[aspen]

I’m thinking Fiona’s ceiling will be 120-130 kt. Based on the hurricane models, it has until Wednesday morning before its wind field begins to expand, and until Wednesday night/Thursday morning before an EWRC begins. In theory, that’s enough time for Fiona to go nuts, and it has a far better structure for RI than Earl despite being over land for 7 hours. Earl had to build its core from scratch after being shared to death and it ended up being too big from the start; Fiona is leaving DR with a more compact core and won’t immediately be interacting with a trough.

Unfortunately, it looks like Fiona will also impact Bermuda, and it could still be a major then if it bombs out in the next 24-48 hours. It’s remarkable how such a tiny target is constantly in the crosshairs of up to multiple TCs a year.

[Old-TimeCane]

Cat 4 120kts/939mb

[Iceresistance]

A C1 Peak option is now out of the window already.

[Hurricane2022]

C4. 130 - 140 mph

Can I change my vote to C5?

[tolakram]

I voted 3, that might be too low.

[Old-TimeCane]

I voted 3, that might be too low.

I'm already thinking my vote of 120kts C 4 is too low. I'm now thinking this might be another one of those 155mph storms that get debated for years as to whether or not it was really a 5.