ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Landy]

Talk about last minute improvement. Fortunate this is close to landfall, but DR is in for a ride.

[chaser1]

With landfall farther south in the Dominican Republic, it could also throw off the future forecast. It will likely spend more time over land and have more time to weaken, especially if it interacts with the tall mountains. A weaker Fiona would likely go farther west for a while too.

I was contemplating the same thing but hadnt taken the time today to look and see whether lower level steering forecasts were significantly westward or also soon phasing into the overall deep layer. Days ago I had thought that combination of landfall weakening and low level steering could have been the catalyst to potentially see Fiona threaten Cuba, Western Bahamas, or Florida.

[chaser1]

Talk about last minute improvement. Fortunate this is close to landfall, but DR is in for a ride.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1019702388719890443/1021301677296472094/9394d174-9f2e-485c-b0c4-e0cb231cc115.jpeg

Hmm? Latest pics suggest that Canebeard's 967 mb bank-shot off the back-board ain't looking that unreasonable

[weeniepatrol]

bruh moment

[weeniepatrol]

[weeniepatrol]

WTF are we witnessing?

[REDHurricane]

Anyone know why another vorticity center appears to be forming right next to Fiona?

[ElectricStorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 SEP 2022 Time : 055020 UTC
Lat : 18:12:35 N Lon : 68:17:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 971mb / 82kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 4.7 5.8

[ElectricStorm]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1571747760365522945

[Sciencerocks]

At least 12 hours over the shedder!!! Probably a tropical storm at exit.

[ElectricStorm]

07L FIONA 220919 0600 18.2N 68.4W ATL 80 977

[Hammy]

Anyone know why another vorticity center appears to be forming right next to Fiona?

https://gcdnb.pbrd.co/images/wjIGSYduf7td.gif?o=1

Pretty common with these islands, it's basically orographic. Puerto Rico also has some natural pressure lowering/vorticity that likely contributed to Fiona's 'loop'

[Landy]

Hurricane Fiona Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
335 AM AST Mon Sep 19 2022

...FIONA MAKES LANDFALL IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

NWS Doppler radar data indicate that the eye of Hurricane Fiona has
made landfall along the coast of the Dominican Republic near Boca de
Yuma at 330 AM AST...0730 UTC. Maximum sustained winds at landfall
were estimated to be 90 mph (150 km/h). The Punta Cana International
Airport recently reported a sustained wind of 51 mph (81 km/h) and a
gust of 79 mph (128 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 330 AM AST...0730 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 68.5W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Papin

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1571766666593243136

[Sciencerocks]

[kevin]

Since Fiona has made a second landfall I think it's important to note that Hispaniola's east side is quite flat. While being above land will weaken Fiona, I don't think it will have the 'shredder' effect that we're used to when something goes over the island east to west.

[kevin]

Latest Fiona IR loop. The eye is still holding on and Fiona is a lot further west than forecast, almost reaching the edge of yesterday's cone.

[Nimbus]

It will likely track back out over the water near Las Terrenas without being shredded by the mountains, not sure about the Bermuda forecast yet.

[weeniepatrol]

[aspen]

The eye is still looking good despite being over land for two hours. It’s already halfway to the coast and should be back over water in another two hours, possibly in time to be intercepted by the recon plane that just took off.