Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[aspen]

I guess the GFS and Euro heard all the talk about 1988 being a possible analog year, and are now trying to make Gaston the next Gilbert.

[Iceresistance]

So the only major model that does not develop this into a hurricane is the Canadian. (ICON has it, but the 0z/12z runs end at +180 hours)

[SFLcane]

Here’s the full 12Z EPS run to 360 hrs, the entire north Gulf and Florida seems to be in play here

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220919/e15a1015bbe64621b026ada005b032c4.jpg


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No doupt about it as the majority of the gefs ensembles headed north cutting across cuba into florida. Lots of time to watch.

[Category5Kaiju]

I guess the GFS and Euro heard all the talk about 1988 being a possible analog year, and are now trying to make Gaston the next Gilbert.

Or Hermine, depending on what 97L does.

Either way, wouldn’t be shocked to see this system become a Cat 4 or potentially even a 5. Warm waters with very high UOHC lie ahead.

[skyline385]

So the only major model that does not develop this is the Canadian. (ICON has it, but the 0z/12z runs end at +180 hours)

Canadian has it briefly, it pushes it into CA under strong ridging.


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[Iceresistance]

So the only major model that does not develop this is the Canadian. (ICON has it, but the 0z/12z runs end at +180 hours)

Canadian has it briefly, it pushes it into CA under strong ridging.


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I forgot to say "as a hurricane". My bad.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1571958148235395073

[skyline385]

Can’t remember the last time when so many mets were this bullish on a system, the entire thread is interesting

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1571958043520253963





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[SoupBone]

Reminder that this is 2022 and models have been all over the place were talking 10 days out from any Conus impacts an internity. So much can and will change i assure you.

**** PROCEED WITH EXTREME CAUTION****

Plenty of EPS members that don't even develop this. Lots of time left here.

[hurricane2025]

Mexico to Florida right now

[Category5Kaiju]

Can’t remember the last time when so many mets were this bullish on a system, the entire thread is interesting

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1571958043520253963?s=46&t=PwDxXXR1riLwAF7GhmTAbw


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When Andy Hazelton of all people seems somewhat bullish or concerned, then you know the game is about to really begin.

[Iceresistance]

Can’t remember the last time when so many mets were this bullish on a system, the entire thread is interesting

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1571958043520253963?s=46&t=PwDxXXR1riLwAF7GhmTAbw


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When Andy Hazelton of all people seems somewhat bullish or concerned, then you know the game is about to really begin.

Also pointed out this:
 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1571939943496253443

[sma10]

Reminder that this is 2022 and models have been all over the place were talking 10 days out from any Conus impacts an internity. So much can and will change i assure you.

**** PROCEED WITH EXTREME CAUTION****

Well 10 days out is always too far, regardless of whether the models have had a good year or not

[Cpv17]

Reminder that this is 2022 and models have been all over the place were talking 10 days out from any Conus impacts an internity. So much can and will change i assure you.

**** PROCEED WITH EXTREME CAUTION****

Plenty of EPS members that don't even develop this. Lots of time left here.

Much higher chance this develops than doesn’t develop imo.

[tolakram]

Easy with the meme's please. We've gone from small funny images to full page nonsense. Thanks.

[StAuggy]

No doupt about it as the majority of the gefs ensembles headed north cutting across cuba into florida. Lots of time to watch.

https://i.postimg.cc/J0gmQV5c/gefs.png

That strong member that just misses the tip of Cuba and recurves into the bend area looks like it would be trouble. That’s like max time over water with the potential to be aided rather than hindered by an approaching front due to its direction of travel approaching landfall

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1571961395490725888




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1571954736173293568

[kevin]

18z ICON 0 - 120 hrs:

[Nimbus]

Saw the convection starting to increase so I guess this will be invest 98 now that Fiona is leaving the islands.

[Spacecoast]

12z UKMO @168hrs... FWIW