ATL: GASTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Subtrop]

AL, 97, 2022091900, , BEST, 0, 278N, 460W, 25, 1015, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 130, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 026,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[ElectricStorm]

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Satellite wind data from earlier tonight indicated an area of low
pressure has formed over the central subtropical Atlantic, and it is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. There is a short
window for this system to develop further over the next day or two
before environmental conditions become less favorable later this
week. The system should move generally northward or northeastward
while remaining over the open central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Landy]

LLC is closed. This went under the radar lol

[Sciencerocks]

Well defined LLC with some convection. I'd go 80% and with any increase in convection we'd see.

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

If this can generate better convection near the center, I could see this potentially becoming Gaston. Shouldn't be able to do much overall, but I'd say a quick TS isn't out of the question.

[Sciencerocks]

Quite close to becoming a tropical cyclone.

[kevin]

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased slightly this evening
in association with an area of low pressure located over the central
subtropical Atlantic. Some slow development is possible during the
next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form during
that time before environmental conditions become less conducive
later this week. The system should generally move northward or
northeastward while remaining over the open waters of central
subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Iceresistance]

Imagine this system stealing Gaston's name and forcing the Caribbean system to be Hermine.

[Teban54]

Imagine this system stealing Gaston's name and forcing the Caribbean system to be Hermine.

And then imagine Hermine 2022 making landfall in the same area as Hermine 2016 did.

[zal0phus]

Imagine this system stealing Gaston's name and forcing the Caribbean system to be Hermine.

And then imagine Hermine 2022 making landfall in the same area as Hermine 2016 did.

Dark Hermine

[tomatkins]

Imagine this system stealing Gaston's name and forcing the Caribbean system to be Hermine.

Given that the Caribbean one looks like it could be a bad one, I'll assume this gets Gaston, then another one dayer pops up and takes Hermine so that the Caribbean storm ends up with the always fearsome I name.

[InfernoFlameCat]

If we get another I, I will not be surprised. But, Hermine wants her turn, and I am afraid she is gonna get it. Invest 97l becomes Gaston IMO.

[Hammy]

Model agreement on development

[ElectricStorm]

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to increase in
association with an area of low pressure located over the central
subtropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear marginally
favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form over the next couple of days before upper-level winds
become less conducive later this week. The system should generally
move northward or northeastward while remaining over the open waters
of central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[ChrisH-UK]

This is a loop taken about 08:30 using GOES-16 CIRA Airmas to get a better look at what's going on. It looks to have some convection but the shear is pushing it north of the lower circulation, it's is now getting a mix of cold air to the north of it and dry air to the west of it not a good combo to have.

Source - https://col.st/BbO5j

[aspen]

The last several HWRF runs have intensified this to somewhere in between a mid-grade TS or a low end hurricane. Seems like there’s a good chance this steals the name Gaston from future 98L in the next 24-48 hours.

[Iceresistance]

80%

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better
organized in association with an area of low pressure located over
the central subtropical Atlantic, about 950 miles west-southwest of
the westernmost Azores. Environmental conditions appear marginally
favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form within the next day or so before upper-level winds
become less conducive later this week. The system should move
generally northward or northeastward while remaining over the open
waters of central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[us89]

It’s clearly under some shear at the moment, but this has been producing sustained convection over a closed low-level center for a while now. Looks to be a TC already and I’m betting it gets classified at 11.