ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Considering the rapid improvement in structure, my guess is Fiona is around 95 knots right now.

[wx98]

Based on the west side from recon, I'd say this is bona fide Cat 2.

[Hammy]

Recon seems to confirm current intensity, surprisingly no strengthening since earlier

Edit: Data doesn't support Cat 2

[kevin]

First recon pass, extrapolated pressure 971.8 mb with 93 kt FL winds (84 kt with standard conversion factor) and 81 kt SFMR. Should be enough for 85 kt based on a blend and undersampling.

[Iceresistance]

First recon pass, extrapolated pressure 971.8 mb with 93 kt FL winds (84 kt with standard conversion factor) and 81 kt SFMR. Should be enough for 85 kt based on a blend and undersampling.

Maybe that the higher winds have yet to start to mix down, the pressure is much lower compared to the previous passes near PR.

[cheezyWXguy]

Recon seems to confirm current intensity, surprisingly no strengthening since earlier

Given the data we’re getting now, I’d guess it probably wasn’t as strong as listed back then. Maybe land interaction took a little more toll on it than thought, and maybe it’s only recently started restrengthening. That said, the pressure gradient on Fiona is tight, I don’t think we’ll have to wait too long for this to reach major status

[kevin]

Since we have two planes in an intensifying hurricane we'll be able to get a really good idea just how quickly Fiona is intensifying based on the subsequent passes. And I agree with the post above that Fiona's current intensity is probably held back a bit due to its recent landfall. The structure survived pretty well though so I'm certain Fiona's pressure + wind will catch up to her appearance soon.

[aspen]

First recon pass, extrapolated pressure 971.8 mb with 93 kt FL winds (84 kt with standard conversion factor) and 81 kt SFMR. Should be enough for 85 kt based on a blend and undersampling.

The NHC was spot-on for the 5pm advisory (85kt/972mb).

[ThetaE]

I'm sure some folks are probably disappointed or surprised that Fiona is "only" in the low 970s right now per recon. All I can say is: Hispaniola is called the "shredder" for a very good reason, and yet that recon pass supports a central pressure lower than Fiona had at landfall! And, as satellite reveals, Fiona has an incredibly well-organized and symmetric core that seems primed to RI in the next day or so.

All things considered, this is probably the most impressive landfall crossing I've ever seen a storm pull off in ~7 years of watching the tropics.

[KirbyDude25]

I'm sure some folks are probably disappointed or surprised that Fiona is "only" in the low 970s right now per recon. All I can say is: Hispaniola is called the "shredder" for a very good reason, and yet that recon pass supports a central pressure lower than Fiona had at landfall! And, as satellite reveals, Fiona has an incredibly well-organized and symmetric core that seems primed to RI in the next day or so.

All things considered, this is probably the most impressive landfall crossing I've ever seen a storm pull off in ~7 years of watching the tropics.

Exactly, as others have said, it'll take a bit for the pressure to catch up with its appearance, and a bit after that for the winds to catch up. It barely missed a beat, and I think RI is likely in the near future

[kevin]

Raw T# now up to 6.2 (120 kt, 943 mb). Obviously it's not there yet in reality as per recon, but it's what you would usually expect based on the current appearance. Fiona isn't there yet because of its landfall. But once Fiona fully recovers and starts RI'ing, the ceiling can be quite high.

[wx98]

AF plane finding plenty to support Cat 2 entering from the southeast.

[aspen]

Winds are possibly up to 90 kt in the AF plane’s pass, but the barometer isn’t working again.

[Iceresistance]

Interesting VDM from NOAA2, says that the eye is open to the south to the southwest.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072022
A. 19/22:53:25Z
B. 20.14 deg N 070.05 deg W
C. NA
D. 975 mb
E. 120 deg 4 kt
F. OPEN S-SW
G. E13/18/13
H. 80 kt
I. 293 deg 9 nm 22:51:06Z
J. 014 deg 78 kt
K. 291 deg 11 nm 22:50:28Z
L. 81 kt
M. 084 deg 11 nm 22:58:05Z
N. 183 deg 93 kt
O. 085 deg 12 nm 22:58:28Z
P. 14 C / 2460 m
Q. 19 C / 2467 m
R. 12 C / NA
S. 1234 / NA
T. 0.01 / 1 nm
U. NOAA3 1607A FIONA OB 01
MAX FL WIND 93 KT 085 / 12 NM 22:58:28Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 293 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR

[Iceresistance]

Winds are possibly up to 90 kt in the AF plane’s pass, but the barometer isn’t working again.

It does have dropsondes, which the NOAA2 may not have.

EDIT: Nevermind, the NOAA2 did have a dropsonde in the eye! 975 mb with 4 knots of wind.

[kevin]

Latest pass by the AF plane found unflagged 94 kt SFMR.

[ThetaE]

That AF eyewall dropsonde is... uh... interesting.

(Typical disclaimer that it measures instantaneous winds).

[kevin]

That AF eyewall dropsonde is... uh... interesting.

(Typical disclaimer that it measures instantaneous winds).

Indeed, 91 kt at the surface and a mean of 103 kt in the lowest 150 m

[Iceresistance]

The SE eyewall is usually weaker, I'm afraid on what the dropsonde for the NE Eyewall shoes.

The wind measurements are instantaneous, but it's proof that Fiona might be RI'ing and the stronger winds may mix down soon.


https://s5.gifyu.com/images/recon_AF303-1707A-FIONA_dropsonde2_20220919-2337.png

[Sciencerocks]

Latest pass by the AF plane found unflagged 94 kt SFMR.

Won't be long before we get our first major!