ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wx98]

That AF eyewall dropsonde is... uh... interesting.

(Typical disclaimer that it measures instantaneous winds).

Indeed, 91 kt at the surface and a mean of 103 kt in the lowest 150 m

Winds will mix down quickly. Should be Cat 3 in 6-10 hours.

[Teban54]

NOAA plane measured 105 kt FL, 94 kt SFMR in the NE quad. Extrap pressure 969.5 so far.

Edit: Corrected SFMR

[wx98]

Nevermind my previous 6-10 hours, NOAA plane found 110 mph now. This will be Cat 3 at the next update.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

Latest pass

001300 2015N 07014W 7508 02253 9698 +180 +142 323008 016 021 000 00

[aspen]

Jeez already up to 95 kt it seems. The next pass from both planes might already find a major.

[tolakram]

001400 2018N 07015W 7501 02269 9704 +184 +128 041015 016 023 000 00

[skyline385]

Eye seems to be closing in, probably going to EWRC

[wx98]

Eye seems to be closing in, probably going to EWRC

Probably not for a little while.

[cheezyWXguy]

Eye seems to be closing in, probably going to EWRC

Probably not for a little while.

Yeah I don’t think so either. The eye is just being clouded over by the bursts to the west, it’s pretty common in intensifying hurricanes to see the eye become periodically obscured

[ElectricStorm]

Eye seems to be closing in, probably going to EWRC

There's not a double wind max on either plane, I'd suspect it's just new convection obscuring the eye for a bit.

[tolakram]

Eye seems to be closing in, probably going to EWRC

Not seeing any double wind maxima.

[cheezyWXguy]

Eye seems to be closing in, probably going to EWRC

Not seeing any double wind maxima.

https://i.imgur.com/Y1tiyvj.png

Also, that eyewall pressure gradient is so sharp it’s almost vertical on the graph. I’d expect to see a broader curve if a second eyewall were forming

[tolakram]

saved loop

[skyline385]

Eye seems to be closing in, probably going to EWRC

There's not a double wind max on either plane, I'd suspect it's just new convection obscuring the eye for a bit.

Yea i didnt see the double wind maxima either thats why I went with "probably". You are most likely right and its just the CB obscuring it.

[aspen]

Probably just overshooting cloud tops. I was expecting the eye to close up for a bit sometime tonight as Fiona generates stronger convection.


However, I wouldn't rule out some EWRC action or other limiting internal dynamics sometime in the next 12 hours. >55-60 kt FL winds (red circles) extend extremely far out on the NW side of Fiona, and not far out at all in the other quadrants. There are also spikes of >64 kt FL winds (yellow circles) that kind of look like double wind maxima. I think it's possible the NW side of Fiona might compete with the core, or produce rain bands that try to compete with the core.

[wx98]

Probably just overshooting cloud tops. I was expecting the eye to close up for a bit sometime tonight as Fiona generates stronger convection.
https://i.imgur.com/4knXTsh.jpg

However, I wouldn't rule out some EWRC action or other limiting internal dynamics sometime in the next 12 hours. >55-60 kt FL winds (red circles) extend extremely far out on the NW side of Fiona, and not far out at all in the other quadrants. There are also spikes of >64 kt FL winds (yellow circles) that kind of look like double wind maxima. I think it's possible the NW side of Fiona might compete with the core, or produce rain bands that try to compete with the core.
https://i.imgur.com/8y5yOJJ.png
https://i.imgur.com/vIFms15.png

Those may be local wind maxima, but I don't believe it is the maxima that would signal an imminent EWRC.

[tolakram]

I expect some 2022 magic to happen at some point. Almost a cat 4 and it falls apart, or continuous ERC mode, or something else unexpected.

[Hammy]

Probably just overshooting cloud tops. I was expecting the eye to close up for a bit sometime tonight as Fiona generates stronger convection.
https://i.imgur.com/4knXTsh.jpg

However, I wouldn't rule out some EWRC action or other limiting internal dynamics sometime in the next 12 hours. >55-60 kt FL winds (red circles) extend extremely far out on the NW side of Fiona, and not far out at all in the other quadrants. There are also spikes of >64 kt FL winds (yellow circles) that kind of look like double wind maxima. I think it's possible the NW side of Fiona might compete with the core, or produce rain bands that try to compete with the core.
https://i.imgur.com/8y5yOJJ.png
https://i.imgur.com/vIFms15.png

Way too far out to be anything ERC related. The wind profile is very rarely contiguous, especially for systems that have recently been over land.

Eye seems to be closing in, probably going to EWRC

There's not a double wind max on either plane, I'd suspect it's just new convection obscuring the eye for a bit.

Yea i didnt see the double wind maxima either thats why I went with "probably". You are most likely right and its just the CB obscuring it.

There's still some shear. More than likely it's leading to convective blowup and hot towards as the eye walls itself off from any dry air intrusion, something that's occurred frequently in this sort of environment (including with Matthew)

[ElectricStorm]

07L FIONA 220920 0000 20.3N 70.1W ATL 95 974