Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[IcyTundra]

This GFS run is going to go nuclear.

[FLpanhandle91]

Stronger trough this run. Could yank it into the Bahamas.

[Keldeo1997]

edit: down to 929MB

[IcyTundra]

Trough moving out

[Kazmit]

Cat 5 into Cuba on this run

[Keldeo1997]

[AJC3]

Pretty decent amplitude to the wave, according to a recent ASCAT METOP-B pass, even though it missed its western half.

A never and slightly ASCAT better pass from METOP-C here...

[AtlanticWind]

00z gfs almost on top of 18z run

[Keldeo1997]

Landfall around Gulf Shores/Orange Beach

[SouthFLTropics]

You could overlay this run onto 2004’s Ivan track and they would almost be identical.

[Hurricaneman]

Pensacola this run

[Pelicane]

Fwiw, shear might put a top on it, assuming it gets to the gulf.

[FLpanhandle91]

Fwiw, shear might put a top on it, assuming it gets to the gulf.

Laughs in Hurricane Michael

[Stormcenter]

I wouldn’t depend on shear to put a cap on this that far out if this does in fact play out.

[Pelicane]

I wouldn’t depend on shear to put a cap on this that far out if this does in fact play out.

Of course. However Michael was the exception due to it's interaction with the trough. This wave doesn't get that same setup in the gulf. Obviously can change though.

[AutoPenalti]

Absolutely insane the agreement with Euro/GFS at long range.

[caneseddy]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/752166055501365319/1021640010723774475/gfs_z500aNorm_watl_fh36-204.gif

That trough is going to be key if the GFS is to believed. With the position its at just south of Cuba if that trough digs a bit deeper south than shown then this system could impact the Keys and the SW/SE coast of Florida.

Also, if this run is to be believed where it crosses Cuba will be critical. If it crosses Cuba about 50 miles east from where the GFS has it and the same pattern holds with the trough/ridge you would most likely have a major hurricane impact in South Florida.

Of course things can change run to run but one thing is certain. This board will be lit up by this weekend if these trends continue

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[lsuhurricane]

Bit more agreement on a Yucatán to Cuba system on the 0z GEFS

[ElectricStorm]

2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is forecast
during the next several days as the system approaches the Windward
Islands, and a tropical depression could form toward the latter
part of this week or weekend as the system moves into the eastern
and central Caribbean sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[skyline385]

CMC has started adjusting towards the GFS/Euro




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