skyline385 wrote:CMC has started adjusting towards the GFS/Euro
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220920/f42f5b7dfe47da21269538e52068e2b7.jpg
Is that more of a west track into the GOM?
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Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (Is Invest 98L)
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (10/40)
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (10/40)
Sambucol wrote:skyline385 wrote:CMC has started adjusting towards the GFS/Euro
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220920/f42f5b7dfe47da21269538e52068e2b7.jpg
Is that more of a west track into the GOM?
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Yea CMC started off much more westwards that the other models
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (10/40)
skyline385 wrote:Weaker Euro this run 120 hrs in
Euro seems to under do these systems until they are formed
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (10/40)
Looks like its going to be a sloppy run from the Euro, much more SW than previous runs and just a broad circulations so far.


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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (10/40)

Here we go. Going to shoot the channel
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (10/40)
Right through the channel but shear in the Gulf may limit its intensification


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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (10/40)
Going to be very close for peninsular florida, could recurve towards Florida but if that trough moves out the ridge may build back again


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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (10/40)
Euro 0Z ends weaker and slightly slower than 12Z


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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (10/40)
skyline385 wrote:Sambucol wrote:skyline385 wrote:CMC has started adjusting towards the GFS/Euro
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220920/f42f5b7dfe47da21269538e52068e2b7.jpg
Is that more of a west track into the GOM?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Yea CMC started off much more westwards that the other models
Which is quite strange (and a trend this season in general, did the same with Fiona as well) as I'm used to it being the eastern outlier.
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Re: RE: Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (10/40)
Hammy wrote:skyline385 wrote:Sambucol wrote:
Yea CMC started off much more westwards that the other models
Which is quite strange (and a trend this season in general, did the same with Fiona as well) as I'm used to it being the eastern outlier.
Yea it's been a strange season so far, even the GFS has been frequently modeling stronger ridges than the Euro (today's 0Z run at 240 hours is another such instance) which is completely the opposite of how they typically behave.
Last edited by skyline385 on Tue Sep 20, 2022 2:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (10/40)
It appears that once Fiona pushes out, this system would have a nice outflow jet on the eastern side when it's south of Cuba and starts strengthening like mad.
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (10/40)
Convection going strong as it approaches DMAX:


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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (10/40)
Teban54 wrote:Convection going strong as it approaches DMAX:
Yea even seeing some pink cloud tops, probably going to cause a very bullish 12Z suite if it persists…
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (10/40)
Very clear that the model runs are timing the start of recurve based on system strength.
Probably not going to stay weak all the way to the Yucatan so the Tex/Mex solutions aren't going to verify.
Barbados is the bowling rule of 31 marker I usually use.
If we have a sharpening wave just south of Barbados it could close off in time to shoot the Yucatan channel.
Probably not going to stay weak all the way to the Yucatan so the Tex/Mex solutions aren't going to verify.
Barbados is the bowling rule of 31 marker I usually use.
If we have a sharpening wave just south of Barbados it could close off in time to shoot the Yucatan channel.
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (10/40)
Very tricky setup as to what happens once it makes into the western Caribbean and feels the tug north as the jet streams dips.




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Re: RE: Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (10/40)
skyline385 wrote:Hammy wrote:skyline385 wrote:
Yea CMC started off much more westwards that the other models
Which is quite strange (and a trend this season in general, did the same with Fiona as well) as I'm used to it being the eastern outlier.
Yea it's been a strange season so far, even the GFS has been frequently modeling stronger ridges than the Euro (today's 0Z run at 240 hours is another such instance) which is completely the opposite of how they typically behave.
I've remembered that the models have been underestimating the strength of the ridges and troughs in the past several years. And with a stronger ridge from the GFS compared to the Euro, I'm assuming that the GFS does not want that mistake this time around.
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (10/40)
06z GFS is faster yet again. It seems the GFS has been treading towards faster forward speed.


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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (10/40)
Keldeo1997 wrote:06z GFS is faster than 00Z. It seems the GFS has been treading towards faster forward speed.
Going to end up going over South America/not developing at all if that trend keeps up
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