Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[Spacecoast]

I like that track this far out, the trend is also good, let's hope it continues.

Exactly, my thinking as well - This is where you want to be 8-9-10+ days out.

I'm sure there will be E of FL to Hatteras and beyond runs in the coming days.

[Iceresistance]

Now at 10/50%

2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms while moving westward at 15-20 mph. Gradual
development of this system is forecast during the next several days
as the system approaches the Windward Islands, and a tropical
depression could form by the latter part of this week as the system
moves into the eastern and central Caribbean sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[AutoPenalti]

Wow GFS

[stormchazer]

Tampa bay run here, VERY bad setup for surge if this happens this way. Check that off the long range GFS hit list. Hoping we get an invest designation on this soon for more models.

https://i.imgur.com/qrNSzam.png

https://i.imgur.com/xoQQhwK.png

Dang that would wipe out my home. I live on the little peninsula known as Pinellas county but as others have said, I'd rather the model be on top of us this far out than a few days from now.

Let’s hope this does not verify. This is one of the worse case scenarios for a land falling hurricane and no, Pinellas County not the place to be. You can take shelter with me in Lakeland. Fortunate this is way out in the forecast.

[ChrisH-UK]

Looks like it has developed well overnight.

[skyline385]

GFS really out for Tampa this run huh




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[JPmia]

Gfs similar to its ensembles for now. Just makes sense in my opinion based on climo alone. Long way to go

https://i.postimg.cc/9Q25V0Pn/C9857-F93-EE13-432-B-BE91-8863-A856-C899.png

That looks like WIlma just a few miles west.

[Deshaunrob17]

Let’s take it step by step.. Firstly, Trinidad and Tobago/ Southern Windwards. I had my doubts yesterday with the GfS but based on satellite presentation this morning , I’m let to wonder!! GfS has shown a strong ts moving over T &T for a while now. This is a country that’s not used to these winds!!! That could be a problem!!! Flooding too!

[SFLcane]

If the Gefs ensembles have a say there could be more eastward shifts in time. We’ll see

[toad strangler]

If the Gefs ensembles have a say there could be more eastward shifts in time. We’ll see

I'm sure there will be. There will be windshield wipers going on until we have an established system. All these solutions are pure entertainment, or horror. For now.

[tomatkins]

Looks like it has developed well overnight.

https://imgur.com/lHtswob

I guess the only way a storm can develop this year is to be super far south.

[ronjon]

If the Gefs ensembles have a say there could be more eastward shifts in time. We’ll see

Wouldn't be surprised with strong east coast troughing basically all summer. Let's hope so. Been down this road before. I won't get nervous until we're in that 5 day forecast window. Even then, look what happened with Charlie and Irma when even short term predictions had each storm running up to Tampa or just offshore the FL west coast and the trough turned them northeast into the peninsula over south FL.

[SoupBone]

Unfortunately, this disturbance could be trouble for the eastern Gulf (Florida) in 8-9 days. Definitely not Charley, as this could be larger. I'm not so confident where it will really go yet. If it's slower to develop and weaker, it may crash into Central America. That's the best we could hope for. I think it'll most likely become a depression next Sun/Mon as it passes south of Jamaica. Look for NHC probabilities to steadily climb as that development point falls within 5 days and if models don't change. If I lived anywhere in Florida or on the northern Gulf Coast, I'd check my hurricane supplies now before the panic starts.

You consider Houston on the northern gulf coast?

[OuterBanker]

Is this now 98L?

[Stormybajan]

Let’s take it step by step.. Firstly, Trinidad and Tobago/ Southern Windwards. I had my doubts yesterday with the GfS but based on satellite presentation this morning , I’m let to wonder!! GfS has shown a strong ts moving over T &T for a while now. This is a country that’s not used to these winds!!! That could be a problem!!! Flooding too!

Yepppp very well said! Looks like its gonna hug that 10N - 11N line and produce some flooding issues for Grenada and T&T. Couldve been worse for the other windward islands if Fiona's outflow wasnt squishing it, as it is right now! I dont really believe it can be named before the islands but I still think a TD or PTC is a possibility. Im very surprised this isnt an invest yet as it will start to affect the islands tomorrow... #wheres98L
LMAO: Not even 1 minute after posting this apparently our tropical wave is now 98L, just my luck

[pgoss11]

Is this now 98L?

I would think very soon.

[toad strangler]

Is this now 98L?

Sure looks like it.

[CourierPR]

Meteorologist Joe Bastardi is telling residents along the central and eastern Gulf coast, and Florida to be on alert for this one.

[SFLcane]

Impressive…

[skyline385]

Let’s take it step by step.. Firstly, Trinidad and Tobago/ Southern Windwards. I had my doubts yesterday with the GfS but based on satellite presentation this morning , I’m let to wonder!! GfS has shown a strong ts moving over T &T for a while now. This is a country that’s not used to these winds!!! That could be a problem!!! Flooding too!

Yepppp very well said! Looks like its gonna hug that 10N - 11N line and produce some flooding issues for Grenada and T&T. Couldve been worse for the other windward islands if Fiona's outflow wasnt squishing it, as it is right now! I dont really believe it can be named before the islands but I still think a TD or PTC is a possibility. Im very surprised this isnt an invest yet as it will start to affect the islands tomorrow... #wheres98L

Lmao:[b]Not even 1 minute after posting this apparently our tropical wave is now 98L[b]

Seriously doubt the GFS is going to verify with a TS that quick, all other models show it as an open wave and I am sure T&T can handle some winds. Rain might be a threat but not much you can get from a TW.