ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Subtrop]

AL, 98, 2022092012, , BEST, 0, 103N, 530W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028, SPAWNINVEST, al712022 to al982022,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk

[kevin]

I think this might become the longest thread of the season. We'll see. Here's IR (data is slightly delayed):

[toad strangler]

That was quick. Very active pattern right now. Impressive. This one has potential somewhere in the western basin for sure.

[Hurricane2022]

I'm expecting 98L (soon Hermine\Ian) to be the strongest storm of the season. It will have winds of 155 kt and pressure sub-915 mbar. it will also hit a region close to where Michael '18 made landfall.

[MississippiWx]

Wow. This one is already very convectively active. Probably some of the best convection I've seen in the MDR this season. I doubted the GFS runs of developing this quickly, but if this kind of convection continues, it might be right.

[Pelicane]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1572212416418811904

[tropicwatch]

The 700-925mb vorticity is stacked nicely.
700mb Vorticity

850mb Vorticity

925mb Vorticity

[SFLcane]

[Jelmergraaff]

I'm not a pro (we don't have any hurricanes in The Netherlands ), but I feel like this one has a good chance of getting pretty far west. It could very well be that right before 98L makes a turn to the north and later northwest, there will be a ridge going from the Central-US to the east/southeast. The trough in the beginning of next week over the (north)eastern-US is probably too far NE to "pull" 98L. The following rigde would steer 98L pretty far west, possibly into the GOM. Consequently also not too much windshear, which would make it a (very) favourable environment. I surely wouldn't rule out a Major Hurriance.

[Iceresistance]

This was a few hours before from BenNollWeather

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1572181526267076608

[aspen]

If this convective activity continues, the GFS might be right about TS Gaston or Hermine in the easternmost Caribbean. It’ll probably stay a TS for a few days due to a poor UL environment thanks to Fiona, but once this gets into the WCar…oh boy.

Today’s HWRF and HMON runs are going to be quite interesting.

[MississippiWx]

If this convective activity continues, the GFS might be right about TS Gaston or Hermine in the easternmost Caribbean. It’ll probably stay a TS for a few days due to a poor UL environment thanks to Fiona, but once this gets into the WCar…oh boy.

Today’s HWRF and HMON runs are going to be quite interesting.

I smell a modeled HWRF Cat 5 in the Western Caribbean on the 12z run.

[Beef Stew]

Here comes a long thread I fear. 98L is already looking impressive ahead of schedule- vorticity is stacking well and convection is looking quite robust. We’ll have to wait a few days before the models really get a good track on it- after all, the safest place usually seems to be where the models have a storm in a weeks’s time. Not overtly concerned yet for WFL, but certainly keeping an eye out.

[Blown Away]

If this convective activity continues, the GFS might be right about TS Gaston or Hermine in the easternmost Caribbean. It’ll probably stay a TS for a few days due to a poor UL environment thanks to Fiona, but once this gets into the WCar…oh boy.

Today’s HWRF and HMON runs are going to be quite interesting.

I smell a modeled HWRF Cat 5 in the Western Caribbean on the 12z run.

No doubt, the HWRF with these predicted favorable conditions will go nuclear.

[jlauderdal]

If this convective activity continues, the GFS might be right about TS Gaston or Hermine in the easternmost Caribbean. It’ll probably stay a TS for a few days due to a poor UL environment thanks to Fiona, but once this gets into the WCar…oh boy.

Today’s HWRF and HMON runs are going to be quite interesting.

I smell a modeled HWRF Cat 5 in the Western Caribbean on the 12z run.

No doubt, the HWRF with these predicted favorable conditions will go nuclear.

The HWRF is very good in these setups as far as intensity forecasting goes.

[Hurricaneman]

The convection is organizing and could form a broad low later today or tomorrow if current trends continue

[Iceresistance]

This already has an Upper-level Anticyclone.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Invest-98L.gif

(Trying to get the upper-level winds here, but the map bugged out somewhat)

[SFLcane]

[Iceresistance]

This already has an Upper-level Anticyclone.
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Invest-98L.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Invest-98L.gif

(Trying to get the upper-level winds here, but the map bugged out somewhat)

Finally got it. It already has southern outflow.


https://s5.gifyu.com/images/Upper-level-winds-over-98L.gif

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1572225309465878531