ATL: IAN - Models

[chris_fit]

Models here

Start off with 06Z GFS



00Z ECMF

[SFLcane]

[Jelmergraaff]

Compared to this morning (06z vs 00z), the ECMWF Ensemble spread is quite a bit higher for coming Monday. This indicates that an increasing number of members is showing (some) development of invest 98L. Most members pretty far southwest to be honest, almost going into Central-America.

[SFLcane]

[jlauderdal]

:double:

https://i.postimg.cc/nzhqZf8J/gefs.png

Right on the line( I know don't focus on the line) beyond 7 days, we will take that solution and run with it for a few days and be happy. Wxman57 is on board with multiple model support, Galveston to the Outerbanks should start their gennys today. This is a gulf coast, Florida peninsula threat then as it pulls out up the east coast. I think we get one more major in October and the season goes at least two weeks longer than"normal". This setup is very dangerous and produces major hurricanes up to a 5 but way too early for intensity predictions other than to say the setup looks explosive.

[Spacecoast]

Comparing 06z ECENS to 0z: More members south
(black square is 0z ECMF @ 144hrs)



06z HWRF:

[SFLcane]

Comparing 06z ECENSTO 0z: More members south
(black square is 0z ECMF @ 144hrs)
https://i.ibb.co/yVk7bCK/cfc.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/n7f3q3r/cfd.jpg

Yes ECMWF does not develop this wave much until the western caribbean. I do though think the gfs/gefs has this one pigged imo.

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1572219242522595329

[MississippiWx]

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1572219242522595329?s=20&t=VBsjtXJYOK-JFng4ZJvKwA

Seems like pretty normal biases so far. GFS aggressive, Euro non-aggressive. CMC would be the best forecast until we see just how quickly 98L organizes. I continue to think a stronger short term for 98L probably means an Eastern Gulf (possibly FL Peninsula or east of there) track.

[SFLcane]

12z GFS has this intensifying as it passes the islands

[Spacecoast]

12z ICON: Same position as 0z ECMF, only much stronger

[AutoPenalti]

GFS a bit faster this run, and slightly weaker short term.

[boca]

I think Mobile Al on this run.

[SFLcane]

I think Mobile Al on this run.

Or Central America.

[lsuhurricane]

20mbs weaker on this run vs 06z. Interestingly though, same positions between runs.

[InfernoFlameCat]

GFS back at it again with a major hurricane.

[jfk08c]

Starts the northward turn right after Jamaica again. Might be a tad west this run due to lower strength. Although it seems like RI got it down a similar pressure as the last run as it approaches Cuba

[TheHurricaneGod]

Based on the past 5 runs or so of the GFS, I think the wildcard is the trough over the east coast, after it passes Jamaica

[InfernoFlameCat]

Its down to 944mb. lower than the previous run.

[toad strangler]

This should end up west of 6z into the GOM