ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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kevin
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1261 Postby kevin » Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:13 am

A tiny eye has appeared on IR. Could this be a pinhole or is it simply a small part of a larger eye that still has to clear?

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1262 Postby MississippiWx » Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:15 am

kevin wrote:A tiny eye has appeared on IR. Could this be a pinhole or is it simply a small part of a larger eye that still has to clear?

https://imgur.com/b0nbNzG


Just part of a larger eye. Fiona is still in the process of restructuring its eye wall.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1263 Postby kevin » Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:15 am

Latest pass, 960.0 mb extrapolated and 105 kt FL winds & 101 kt SFMR.

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1264 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:22 am

Maintaining it at 100 kts is probably the right call for now. The pressure is now catching up to the wind speed.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1265 Postby Teban54 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:27 am

I was wondering if being north of Hispaniola blocked Fiona's outflow from the south. That would explain why Fiona held up so well while over DR, but started degrading a bit in the last 12 hours or so with an EWRC earlier than expected. No idea if that's true though.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1266 Postby skyline385 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:30 am

So it was the beginning of an EWRC yesterday when the eye started to close up?
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1267 Postby Chemmers » Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:34 am

looks like the eye is trying to clear out again
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1268 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:36 am

skyline385 wrote:So it was the beginning of an EWRC yesterday when the eye started to close up?

The MW image Hammy posted yesterday evening around the time EWRC comments started popping up showed a fully intact core (except for a weakness to the sw due to land interaction) with a lot of prominent banding, but not much of a forming outer eyewall yet. My personal guess is that it formally started around midnight when the cdo started to expand.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1269 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:37 am

Just spotted iCyclone putting out tweets again, he's doing alright after Fiona's passage over the DR.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1270 Postby ThetaE » Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:39 am

Dropsonde in the NE eyewall suggests that strong winds are returning to Fiona, but still need to mix down to the surface. Looks like the EWRC is in its final stages.

Edit: to be clear, it shows 115-120kt (instantaneous) at 961-964mb, dropping to 75kt at the surface (977mb). That's very close to the surface, but until it mixes down (which I expect should happen very shortly) there is no increased surface heat flux --> no WISHE --> no ramp up in intensity.
Last edited by ThetaE on Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:48 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1271 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:47 am

Looks like it has taken a slightly westward jog/wobble in the last several frames as the eye clears.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1272 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:50 am

Raw ADT is now at 6
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1273 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:25 am

Looks more like a triple eyewall: a double wind maxima close to the core, then that third wind maxima further out.
https://mobile.twitter.com/TropicalTidb ... gr%5Etweet
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1274 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:28 am

aspen wrote:Looks more like a triple eyewall: a double wind maxima close to the core, then that third wind maxima further out.
https://mobile.twitter.com/TropicalTidb ... gr%5Etweet

The consolidation process certainly seems to be ongoing. Would be nice to get another MW pass to see if this is going to be a perpetual EWRC thing
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1275 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:39 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:
aspen wrote:Looks more like a triple eyewall: a double wind maxima close to the core, then that third wind maxima further out.
https://mobile.twitter.com/TropicalTidb ... gr%5Etweet

The consolidation process certainly seems to be ongoing. Would be nice to get another MW pass to see if this is going to be a perpetual EWRC thing

If this is another perpetual EWRC situation, then it probably won’t get any stronger than it is now and would be another failed Cat 4 forecast. However, it seems like that outer maxima is aligned with where the eye seems to be outlined on visible imagery, so I’m not sure what’s up with the double maxima near the core. Is it due to a fragment of the original eyewall? Is the outer eyewall on visible imagery a third one that started forming today?
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1276 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Sep 20, 2022 12:06 pm

Full (cloud-filled) eye now visible. Should see cloud tops start cooling around the eye in a little while.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1277 Postby Teban54 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 12:06 pm

Extrap pressure 959.6 mb, SE quad has 99 kt FL and 94 kt SFMR. Looks like Fiona is holding steady and even slightly deepening, despite a rather anemic satellite appearance due to the EWRC.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1278 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Sep 20, 2022 12:10 pm

Eye drop 960/8, supports 959-960
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1279 Postby Buck » Tue Sep 20, 2022 12:22 pm

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1280 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Sep 20, 2022 12:55 pm

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