ATL: IAN - Models

[Iceresistance]

First HWRF weakens this back to a TD because of the Northerly Wind Shear by Fiona.

[underthwx]

First HWRF weakens this back to a TD because of the Northerly Wind Shear by Fiona.

I was wondering about Fionas influence on 98L...

[aspen]

First HWRF weakens this back to a TD because of the Northerly Wind Shear by Fiona.

Pretty much the same as the GFS. This shear ablates in the day 4-5 range as an upper-level anticyclone begins to establish itself over 98L/Hermine. The end of the HWRF run should, in theory, show reorganization and intensification.

[chris_fit]

12z GEFS, while W of the 06z Suite, most (almost all) are also E of the 12z OPS

[SFLcane]

12z GEFS, while W of the 06z Suite, most (almost all) are also E of the 12z OPS


https://i.imgur.com/QvfWHEq.gif

Indeed this has been the story for runs now.

[TallyTracker]

This run would be disastrous for Tallahassee

Agreed! While the last Hermine thinned out some trees, our grid would be wrecked for many weeks with a run like that. Not to mention the clay soils would cause massive flash flooding. A couple of summer downpours over washed some roads as-is.

[toad strangler]

12z GEFS, while W of the 06z Suite, most (almost all) are also E of the 12z OPS


https://i.imgur.com/QvfWHEq.gif

Almost all of those members take a turn to the N and then NE regardless of where they are. So, there ain't no "trends" past the central and western half of the Caribbean right now. Too far out

[CrazyC83]

The keys I think are the speed of 98L/Hermine and the trough incoming. There's strong support for a powerful trough coming down around the end of September.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1572269045940097025

[SFLcane]

Updated 12z GEFS even further east.

[AutoPenalti]

Updated 12z GEFS even further east.

https://i.postimg.cc/Pxm86h1Y/gefs.png

That's weird, the ensembles members are a bit west before SFL...

[boca]

Updated 12z GEFS even further east.

https://i.postimg.cc/Pxm86h1Y/gefs.png

How can they be so far off

[CrazyC83]

Updated 12z GEFS even further east.

https://i.postimg.cc/Pxm86h1Y/gefs.png

That's weird, the ensembles members are a bit west before SFL...

That would be because of a strong trough most likely.

[MississippiWx]

Updated 12z GEFS even further east.

https://i.postimg.cc/Pxm86h1Y/gefs.png

Looks like the farthest east members went even more to the east. Looks like more spread than before. We have a long way to go with this one.

[SFLcane]

Updated 12z GEFS even further east.

https://i.postimg.cc/Pxm86h1Y/gefs.png

That's weird, the ensembles members are a bit west before SFL...

OP models are very unrealiable past 5 days its best to go with ensembles gives you a better look at what might happen. In my opinion atleast. Even some of the weak ones find there way into SFL.

[aspen]

HWRF/HMON are closer to the CMC than the GFS: weaker, longer to start intensifying in the WCar, and headed for Central America instead of Cuba and Florida.

[toad strangler]

HWRF/HMON are closer to the CMC than the GFS: weaker, longer to start intensifying in the WCar, and headed for Central America instead of Cuba and Florida.

Aren't the hurricane models used primarily after real genesis??

[underthwx]

Updated 12z GEFS even further east.

https://i.postimg.cc/Pxm86h1Y/gefs.png

Please forgive me if I'm wrong, would this run be in response to a front entering Florida by the weekend?...pulling whatever 98L is North and Eastward? NWS Tallahassee forecast discussion mentions a front sagging southward Friday into the region.

[MississippiWx]

HWRF/HMON are closer to the CMC than the GFS: weaker, longer to start intensifying in the WCar, and headed for Central America instead of Cuba and Florida.

When the GFS is the only model to show quick development, that sends up a red flag. When you factor in the trend on the GFS has been weaker and further south in the short term, that sends up another red flag. I think the shear from Fiona is going to impede any quick development for a few days, but that changes in the Western Caribbean.

[SFLcane]

Updated 12z GEFS even further east.

https://i.postimg.cc/Pxm86h1Y/gefs.png

Please forgive me if I'm wrong, would this run be in response to a front entering Florida by the weekend?...pulling whatever 98L is North and Eastward?

Yup. Timing is eveything!