ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

That outer band with all the lightning might be Fiona’s next problem. It could be strong enough to compete/mess with the core and once again halt its intensification.

maybe it would be an issue for a weaker storm, but its not going to be anywhere near strong enough to compete with the Core of a major hurricane.

Yeah I agree, I was watching that earlier, but it looks like its slowly being pulled into the core. Speaking of the core, cloud tops continuing to cool at a good clip. I imagine raw T's must be skyrocketing right now.

The timing could not be any better, Recon is on the way. NOAA2 just barely missed the thunderstorm action in Florida.

EDIT: Ummm, is the eye really at +12.5°C?

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 SEP 2022 Time : 202020 UTC
Lat : 22:20:24 N Lon : 71:34:48 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 947mb / 110kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 6.3 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 23 km

Center Temp : +12.5C Cloud Region Temp : -67.1C

Scene Type : EYE

[Category5Kaiju]

maybe it would be an issue for a weaker storm, but its not going to be anywhere near strong enough to compete with the Core of a major hurricane.

Yeah I agree, I was watching that earlier, but it looks like its slowly being pulled into the core. Speaking of the core, cloud tops continuing to cool at a good clip. I imagine raw T's must be skyrocketing right now.

The timing could not be any better, Recon is on the way. NOAA2 just barely missed the thunderstorm action in Florida.

EDIT: Ummm, is the eye really at +12.5°C?

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 SEP 2022 Time : 202020 UTC
Lat : 22:20:24 N Lon : 71:34:48 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 947mb / 110kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 6.3 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 23 km

Center Temp : +12.5C Cloud Region Temp : -67.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Well on its way toward Cat 4

[aspen]

That outer band with all the lightning might be Fiona’s next problem. It could be strong enough to compete/mess with the core and once again halt its intensification.

maybe it would be an issue for a weaker storm, but its not going to be anywhere near strong enough to compete with the Core of a major hurricane.

Yeah I agree, I was watching that earlier, but it looks like its slowly being pulled into the core. Speaking of the core, cloud tops continuing to cool at a good clip. I imagine raw T's must be skyrocketing right now.

The band being drawn closer to the core may start another EWRC sometime tomorrow, unless the band dies off overnight.

[cycloneye]

Hi to all. I am back after the pasaage of Hurricane Fiona thru the SW corner of the island. As many of you may know, catastrofic flooding and mudslides occured in south, SW and in the interior mountains of cordillera central. So far two direct deaths are atributed to Fiona. I am fine.

[galaxy401]

Hi to all. I am back after the pasaage of Hurricane Fiona thru the SW corner of the island. As many of you may know, catastrofic flooding and mudslides occured in south, SW and in the interior mountains of cordillera centeral. So far two direct deaths are atributed to Fiona. I am fine.

Glad to see you are back. Did you get any flooding at your place? Looks like San Juan didn't get as badly hit.

[cycloneye]

Hi to all. I am back after the pasaage of Hurricane Fiona thru the SW corner of the island. As many of you may know, catastrofic flooding and mudslides occured in south, SW and in the interior mountains of cordillera centeral. So far two direct deaths are atributed to Fiona. I am fine.

Glad to see you are back. Did you get any flooding at your place? Looks like San Juan didn't get as badly hit.

San Juan was fine.

[Iceresistance]

Hi to all. I am back after the pasaage of Hurricane Fiona thru the SW corner of the island. As many of you may know, catastrofic flooding and mudslides occured in south, SW and in the interior mountains of cordillera centeral. So far two direct deaths are atributed to Fiona. I am fine.

Glad to see you are back. Did you get any flooding at your place? Looks like San Juan didn't get as badly hit.

San Juan was fine.

The Mountains must have blocked the worst of the rainfall from coming to San Juan, but the same can't be said on the windward side.

[Iceresistance]

ADT says that this is a Cat 4, but only recon will tell us the true intensity of Fiona.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 SEP 2022 Time : 212020 UTC
Lat : 22:36:36 N Lon : 71:35:23 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 938mb / 120kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +16.5C Cloud Region Temp : -70.9C

Scene Type : EYE

[Iceresistance]

Recon has descended to operational altitude, they're thinking that this storm is at least Cat 3.

[cheezyWXguy]

maybe it would be an issue for a weaker storm, but its not going to be anywhere near strong enough to compete with the Core of a major hurricane.

Yeah I agree, I was watching that earlier, but it looks like its slowly being pulled into the core. Speaking of the core, cloud tops continuing to cool at a good clip. I imagine raw T's must be skyrocketing right now.

The band being drawn closer to the core may start another EWRC sometime tomorrow, unless the band dies off overnight.

You have a point, the band has largely stopped migrating in its position relative to the core. Not only that, but there almost seems like a new moat forming immediately outside the new eyewall. Maybe this is why the latest GFS doesn't get this much below 950mb.

[Beef Stew]

Thinking recon will find a ~110 kt storm initially, and a bona fide Cat 4 by the time they’re done.

[weeniepatrol]

[Iceresistance]

WOW! First pass has 950.1 mb Extrapolated

[Hypercane_Kyle]

950 mb is a significant drop. NE quad wasn't sampled though.

[Jelmergraaff]

WOW! First pass has 950.1 mb Extrapolated

Winds seem to be rather low (both flight-lvl as well as SFMR), but they'll probably find stronger winds in the other quadrants. Can't think of it having lower sustained winds with such a pressure drop.

[Iceresistance]

950 mb is a significant drop. NE quad wasn't sampled though.

The update showed Miss Piggy (NOAA2) circling around the eye and could do a NE eyewall exit.

[Jelmergraaff]

Latest recon shows 115 - 120 kt flight level winds and about 105 kt SFMR (unflagged) in the E-quadrant. Lowest extrapolated pressure 949.4 mb!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Flight level winds around 117 knots. That would translate to 105 knots on the surface IMHO.

[aspen]

E quad supports 105 kt, but since the pressure is down to ~950mb, it’s possible the NE quad has Cat 4 surface winds.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Certainly looks impressive.