ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

Fiona is rapidly intensifying. Will she reach cat 5?
Unlikely imho but one can dream.

Someone on a different forum said that the 166 mph wind measurement from the dropsonde (Likely a gust) was 750 feet from the ground.

[CrazyC83]

Dropsonde got 952mb with 10kt winds, supports a drop from 953mb to 951mb in about an hour.

I suspect the 8 pm advisory will have 951 as the pressure then, with 125 mph winds.

[InfernoFlameCat]

2mb an hour is pretty quick. its no Dennis but its good. Dennis dropped 11mb in one hour.

[Iceresistance]

2mb an hour is pretty quick. its no Dennis but its good. Dennis dropped 11mb in one hour.

Eta 2020 dropped by nearly 20 mb in one hour, I still remember that

[Iceresistance]

I think that the NOAA2's barometer broke. No extrapolated pressure since the 2nd NE eyewall pass.

115 knot FL winds in the NE eyewall.

[Hammy]

8:00 PM EDT Tue Sep 20
Location: 22.9°N 71.7°W
Moving: NNW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 951 mb
Max sustained: 125 mph

Probably reach Cat 4 by sunrise

[wx98]

8:00 PM EDT Tue Sep 20
Location: 22.9°N 71.7°W
Moving: NNW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 951 mb
Max sustained: 125 mph

[kevin]

Fiona looks phenomenal right now and, unless we get an EWRC due to that outer band, I don't see how it will degrade any time soon. T# is up to 6.6, corresponding to 130 kt / 932 mb. Fiona isn't there yet, but as others have said in these quickly intensifying storms the look usually precedes the actual intensity. So unless Fiona gets disrupted soon I can definitely see it reaching its T#6.6 potential.

[Iceresistance]

Fiona is starting to get consistent lightning in the eyewall.

[aspen]

Another EWRC might be commencing soon. A double wind maxima is becoming apparent, but the two maxima are so close together that maybe this'll be seamless and more like an eyewall meld.


No sign of it on IR though. Right now I'm leaning towards a meld that'll just result in a gradually expanding eye without it being clouded over again.

[kevin]

Raw T#7.0 (140 kt, 921 mb), the first raw T#7.0 in the Atlantic since Iota in 2020.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 SEP 2022 Time : 235020 UTC
Lat : 22:56:24 N Lon : 71:41:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 929mb / 130kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 7.0 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +13.8C Cloud Region Temp : -73.0C

Scene Type : EYE

[Hurricane2022]

Raw T#7.0 (140 kt, 921 mb), the first T7.0 in the Atlantic since Iota in 2020.

https://i.imgur.com/joQngHI.gif

Meanwhile the recon only supports 105 - 115 kt winds.
It is for this and other reasons that I do not believe much in the satellite estimates. Very lucky to have recon in the Atlantic.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Come on Fiona, you can do it! its probably near or at Cat 4 intensity right now.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Fiona is now organizing her core. Multiple mesovortices are present in the eyewall.

[aspen]

Recon is going to do at least one more pass. I hope they go through the yet-to-be-sampled S and N quads, or go through the SE quad again, which had the highest FL winds.

[zal0phus]

I never thought we'd see a borderline Category 4 in 2022, let alone something with Category 5 potential. Such a beautiful storm; let's hope it doesn't make another landfall

[InfernoFlameCat]

I estimate pressure to be at 945mb dropsonde. Bullish, I know, but its what I would expect given this increase in organization of the eyewall(more symmetric, mesovortices, etc).

[Owasso]

[KirbyDude25]

https://i.postimg.cc/c4f2qxT3/FC977-EFB-70-FE-4-E1-E-9-BC3-1-ABA4491-F090.jpg

I wonder if that thick outer band in the north could cause some problems for it eventually. Not sure if it's a feeder or if it's competing with the core

[Owasso]

945 extrap