ATL: IAN - Models

[TheHurricaneGod]

The storm is still nearly 200 hours away when it enters the gulf of mexico. I dont see how you can trust the operational over the ensembles this far out. I give more weight to the GEFS and EPS ensembles as of now.

[Jr0d]

Not going to be too concerned until we have a trackable storm but the model.out.put is trouble some.

If this system makes it to the NW Caribbean, then Gulf of Mexico, watch.

The CMC is the left outlier, showing ridging that for the forecast period prevents a turn north in the Gulf. As we saw with Fiona this may not be realistic and the everyone on the Gulf is not "safe".

The waters between the Yucatan and Cuba adjacent Gulf waters are extremely warm. I hate to say it this early, but we could gave a monster storm next week.

I will be.watching this closely. Tempted to up my boat insurance tomorrow

[SFLcane]

[Spacecoast]

GEFS Mean...Being pulled east by some of the extreme outliers?

Which Is why AEMI remain TS...

[otowntiger]

https://i.postimg.cc/T3y5BRRs/159-FDB79-190-B-4-B3-A-B5-FF-5-C70-F6-CB6-B09.png

According to those ensemble runs it looks to me like there is a 50/50 shot of this thing swinging right and swiping eastern Cuba and the Bahamas, and missing Florida altogether. Am I reading that correctly?

[Nimbus]

GEFS Mean...Being pulled east by some of the extreme outliers?
https://i.ibb.co/bWx2wVW/cfl.jpg
Which Is why AEMI remain TS...
https://i.ibb.co/pLxb0qq/cfm.jpg

Change in synoptic model breadth film at 11.

[ConvergenceZone]

https://i.postimg.cc/T3y5BRRs/159-FDB79-190-B-4-B3-A-B5-FF-5-C70-F6-CB6-B09.png

According to those ensemble runs it looks to me like there is a 50/50 shot of this thing swinging right and swiping eastern Cuba and the Bahamas, and missing Florida altogether. Am I reading that correctly?

Well, yea there is still definitely a chance that this goes out to sea and misses the USA mainland altogether if that's what you are asking. It's just too early to say at this point until it actually develops and timing of the troughs etc.....But pro mets can probably speak about this much better than I can...

[Spacecoast]

https://i.postimg.cc/T3y5BRRs/159-FDB79-190-B-4-B3-A-B5-FF-5-C70-F6-CB6-B09.png

According to those ensemble runs it looks to me like there is a 50/50 shot of this thing swinging right and swiping eastern Cuba and the Bahamas, and missing Florida altogether. Am I reading that correctly?

Taking the GEFS verbatim, you would be correct. The AEMN goes right down the spine of FL, so 50% are east, and 50% are west.
Those eastern members going through Haiti, and eastern Cuba are real outliers at this time. No other model is showing this..
I would go with TVCN, TVCA over AEMN, (although AEMN has performed well this season)

[wxman57]

If you want to see what the NHC would use for a track on 98L, they'll follow the consensus (TVCN). Numbers are date/time (in CDT). Since the NHC issues only a 5-day track, they would stop the track south of Jamaica where you see "25/19" (25th at 7pm CDT). They rarely deviate from TVCN. They would most likely have it as a 50kt TS south of Jamaica in 5 days.

[SFLcane]

[Spacecoast]

0Z CMC/UKM/HMON/HWRF - (the left- handed models?)

[SFLcane]

[gatorcane]

https://i.postimg.cc/HkNJ4jyx/C79-B6803-68-A8-48-D4-B860-508-D5739-AEC6.gif

Still think this ends up being a FL panhandle, Big Bend, or NGOM issue if it enters the Gulf. Climo suggests that kind of track and not north or northeast through the FL peninsula. If we were in October, then the risk would be higher for the peninsula. I think the TVCN grey track is actually reasonable but could see it ending up even further west.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/whitleyweather/status/1572376758669787137

[jfk08c]

https://i.postimg.cc/HkNJ4jyx/C79-B6803-68-A8-48-D4-B860-508-D5739-AEC6.gif

Still think this ends up being a FL panhandle, Big Bend, or NGOM issue if it enters the Gulf. Climo suggests that kind of track and not north or northeast through the FL peninsula. If we were in October, then the risk would be higher for the peninsula. I think the TVCN grey track is actually reasonable but could see it ending up even further west.

Irma would like a word

[SFLcane]

https://i.postimg.cc/HkNJ4jyx/C79-B6803-68-A8-48-D4-B860-508-D5739-AEC6.gif

Still think this ends up being a FL panhandle, Big Bend, or NGOM issue if it enters the Gulf. Climo suggests that kind of track and not north or northeast through the FL peninsula. If we were in October, then the risk would be higher for the peninsula. I think the TVCN grey track is actually reasonable but could see it ending up even further west.

Based on what some OP runs 7+ days out. Ensembles are more useful at this range. The entire gulf coast including Florida needs to watch this.

[skyline385]

I am seeing a lot of comparisons between GFS and GEFS and its time to remind again that the GFS and GEFS are not the same model. The deterministic model is GFSv16 running on a 13-km grid whereas the GEFS uses GFSv15 members running on a 25-km grid. The results will be different between them.

[SFLcane]

I am seeing a lot of comparisons between GFS and GEFS and its time to remind again that the GFS and GEFS are not the same model. The deterministic model is v16 of the GFS whereas the GEFS uses v15. The results will be different between them.

I’ll side with the GEFS any day at this range.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1572400395078733824

[ConvergenceZone]

https://twitter.com/whitleyweather/status/1572376758669787137?s=21&t=ykuyWLUncU8jWzjR9IE7aQ

It would be awesome if the ensembles would keep up their current trend of trending east more and more until eventually they all end up out to sea....