ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wx98]

945 extrap. For whatever reason they're not going through the N/NW side.

[Hammy]

https://i.postimg.cc/c4f2qxT3/FC977-EFB-70-FE-4-E1-E-9-BC3-1-ABA4491-F090.jpg

I wonder if that thick outer band in the north could cause some problems for it eventually. Not sure if it's a feeder or if it's competing with the core

Almost seems like a consequence of dry air, could still be some flow off DR.

[ElectricStorm]

Eye drop 948/8, supports 947-948

[Owasso]

Drop supports 947

[wx98]

Pressure still falling. Current findings still support 120-125 mph. Wish they'd go through the N side.

[Owasso]

Fell 3mb since the last drop about 90 minutes ago

[cycloneye]

URNT12 KWBC 210143
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072022
A. 21/01:16:51Z
B. 22.99 deg N 071.79 deg W
C. 700 MB 2649 m
D. 948 mb
E. 95 deg 8 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C26
H. 88 kt
I. 152 deg 19 nm 01:12:09Z
J. 239 deg 101 kt
K. 152 deg 21 nm 01:11:27Z
L. 101 kt
M. 038 deg 14 nm 01:25:14Z
N. 126 deg 107 kt
O. 035 deg 21 nm 01:27:02Z
P. 9 C / 3072 m
Q. 17 C / 3006 m
R. 13 C / NA
S. 1234 / 7
T. 0.01 / 0.5 nm
U. NOAA3 2107A FIONA OB 21
MAX FL WIND 117 KT 090 / 22 NM 22:32:03Z
MAX FL TEMP 19 C 154 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR

[aspen]

On IR, it looks like an even bigger eye will open soon and an eyewall meld will happen. There are still signs of a double wind maxima in this center pass.

[ElectricStorm]

On IR, it looks like an even bigger eye will open soon and an eyewall meld will happen. There are still signs of a double wind maxima in this center pass.

I'm not sure I see a double wind max, they just turned around quickly and went back to the eye in the NE quad

[wx98]

Pressure still falling. Current findings still support 120-125 mph. Wish they'd go through the N side.

They did finally and found >110 kt SFMR

[Sciencerocks]

[MGC]

26 mile wide eye, plenty of room to contract. Fiona looks to be a cat-4 soon......MGC

[Owasso]

 https://twitter.com/WxBot9000/status/1572409067318185989

[galaxy401]

An argument could be made for Fiona being a Category 4 now. Pressure still dropping and is within Cat 4 values. Looks like she's moving slow too.

[aspen]

IR is really showing that EWRC/eyewall meld now. I might wake up to a really nice big eye on visible imagery tomorrow morning, assuming the process doesn’t get interrupted by a bit of shear or dry air and cripple Fiona.

[wx98]

An argument could be made for Fiona being a Category 4 now. Pressure still dropping and is within Cat 4 values. Looks like she's moving slow too.

Extrapolated pressure at least hasn't fallen from about 01z to 0230z (hovering at ~945 with each pass).

[wx98]

11:00 PM EDT Tue Sep 20
Location: 23.2°N 71.8°W
Moving: N at 8 mph
Min pressure: 947 mb
Max sustained: 125 mph

[galaxy401]

From the latest NHC discussion.

The
pressure has fallen a few more millibars and is now down to 947 mb,
however the plane has not found any higher winds during several
passes through the northeastern and northern portion of the eyewall.
It is worth noting that the latest subjective and objective
satellite estimates suggest a stronger intensity, and this may be a
case in which the winds are lagging the improved satellite
presentation, which is not too uncommon.

[Hammy]

An argument could be made for Fiona being a Category 4 now. Pressure still dropping and is within Cat 4 values. Looks like she's moving slow too.

Technically the highest SFMR was 1kt below the Cat 4 threshold so makes sense not to up the wind. Probably came down to a judgement call either way.

[Owasso]