ATL: FIONA - Models

[tolakram]

12Z HWRF running


Both it and Euro show a hard left turn before continuing NW movement.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro

[PavelGaborik10]

Looks Newfoundland bound down the line.

Wonder how much of a punch it'll pack by that time

[tolakram]

18Z HWRF. For this to verify it has to start moving north right now.

[tolakram]

Looks Newfoundland bound down the line.

Wonder how much of a punch it'll pack by that time

Probably decent wind, the usual 60 gusts to whatever, and a lot of rain. Below hurricane strength but for a place not used to regular large storms could maybe do some significant damage.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Looks Newfoundland bound down the line.

Wonder how much of a punch it'll pack by that time

Probably decent wind, the usual 60 gusts to whatever, and a lot of rain. Below hurricane strength but for a place not used to regular large storms could maybe do some significant damage.

Some models have shown this making landfall near or at 950mb in Newfoundland. Major hurricane landfall isn't out of the question.

[PavelGaborik10]

Looks Newfoundland bound down the line.

Wonder how much of a punch it'll pack by that time

Probably decent wind, the usual 60 gusts to whatever, and a lot of rain. Below hurricane strength but for a place not used to regular large storms could maybe do some significant damage.

Atlantic Canada is quite used to large storms, they get hammered with weather bombs in the 950-960 NB range just about annually, just not typically this time of year when leaves are still on all the trees.

If it's only going to bring 60 MPH winds it'll be nothing.

[aspen]

18z HMON does show a landfall over DR, but Fiona isn’t impacted that much and recovers within 12 hours or so before getting all the way down into the 930s by Wednesday.

[Landy]

Sure, HWRF.

[kevin]

Looks like we can throw most models in the bin with the current path over land. No idea how much of an impact this will have on Fiona's future track. That being said, all the models are trending stronger with all of the ones below showing at least a MH peak.

[Jelmergraaff]

Anyone knows if the (experimental) HAFS-model on Tropical Tidbits has a bias in terms of over-estimating intensitifaction. Because 923 hPa and 142 kt in 63 hours seems unrealistic to me...

[kevin]

Anyone knows if the (experimental) HAFS-model on Tropical Tidbits has a bias in terms of over-estimating intensitifaction. Because 923 hPa and 142 kt in 63 hours seems unrealistic to me...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hafs/2022091900/hafs_mslp_wind_07L_22.png

HAFS is supposed to be the next gen hurricane model so on the one hand I'm optimistic about its capabilities, but it's also new/experimental with little test data to compare it to so I can't say for sure. It does seem to be quite aggressive similar to the other hurricane models HWRF/HMON. For example for Earl it consistently showed a cat 4 hurricane and once even showed a 920mb/145kt cat 5. I guess both of those options were technically possible and Earl just underperformed, but a cat 5 does sound like an overestimation even if Earl did have a better structure. With Fiona HAPS showed an 80 kt PR/DR landfall, while pretty much all the other global models showed a max. 60 kt landfall. I still remember a post earlier in this thread mentioning how crazy HAPS' solution was and at the time I sort of agreed. Now it turns out Fiona did actually make landfall at 80 kt so that's a big win for HAPS compared to the other models. In general, like HWRF/HMON I think HAPS is quite aggressive with intensity. If conditions are very conductive (like apparently was the case with Fiona) it can be quite accurate, but otherwise it tends to overestimate things. I think this HAPS solution is the absolute ceiling for Fiona if all conditions are perfect, but not the average forecast. That's the reason why HWRF/HMON are often the best performing models with rapidly intensifying hurricanes, but tend to overestimate storms/seasons with a less favorable setup. So not really a clear-cut answer, I guess what I'm trying to say is 'probably yes, but also not always' . I do agree with you that 142 kt in 63 hours seems unrealistic.

[Nimbus]

Models still showing Bermuda taking the strong side of a fast moving major.
West of the center the Canadian Maritimes may not even get hurricane force winds.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Models still showing Bermuda taking the strong side of a fast moving major.
West of the center the Canadian Maritimes may not even get hurricane force winds.

It depends on what happens with the trough interaction. Back in 2014 Hurricane Arthur caused a tremendous amount of widespread wind damage up here due to a westside sting jet that got drawn into the transitioning system. The westside weak windfield rule of thumb does not always hold true with phasing systems.

[PavelGaborik10]

Interested that nobody is discussing the fact that the GFS & Euro seem to want to wipe Nova Scotia off the map for good.

The capture is very similar to Igor/Sandy, though it's looking to be a significantly stronger storm than either.

[somethingfunny]

The track seems to be slowing down and shifting west as Fiona is taking her time getting out of the Turks and Caicos region. Good for Bermuda, bad for Canada

[aspen]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022092018/gfs_mslp_uv850_secan_16.png

Interested that nobody is discussing the fact that the GFS & Euro seem to want to wipe Nova Scotia off the map for good.

The capture is very similar to Igor/Sandy, though it's looking to be a significantly stronger storm than either.

I just watched Mark Sudduth’s most recent video. He’s very concerned about Fiona’s impacts as a gigantic mid-latitude cyclone, and is heading to Atlantic Canada to record its landfall

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022092018/gfs_mslp_uv850_secan_16.png

Interested that nobody is discussing the fact that the GFS & Euro seem to want to wipe Nova Scotia off the map for good.

The capture is very similar to Igor/Sandy, though it's looking to be a significantly stronger storm than either.

Wow, I'm right at the southwest corner of New Brunswick less than five miles from the Maine border and even my area is in the purple, looks very nasty.

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS actually strengthens this on approach to Canada, 937mb!

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I haven't seen a pressure gradient so steep anywhere in the NE since Sandy or the Winter Storm that flooded Boston Harbor in January 2018.