ATL: IAN - Models

[BobHarlem]

from http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products ... m=AL982022

[longhorn2004]

As strong as this high pressure has been sitting over Texas, if it shifts east then this storm is probably heading to Mexico.

[SFLcane]

Here is another view of the GEFS ensembles from Tom Burgs page. I highly recommend!

http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products ... d=al982022

[Steve]

https://i.postimg.cc/HkNJ4jyx/C79-B6803-68-A8-48-D4-B860-508-D5739-AEC6.gif

Still think this ends up being a FL panhandle, Big Bend, or NGOM issue if it enters the Gulf. Climo suggests that kind of track and not north or northeast through the FL peninsula. If we were in October, then the risk would be higher for the peninsula. I think the TVCN grey track is actually reasonable but could see it ending up even further west.

https://i.postimg.cc/HkNJ4jyx/C79-B6803-68-A8-48-D4-B860-508-D5739-AEC6.gif

Super far out and pre formation but east Gulf seemed kind of like a potential hot spot this year to me. For argument and speculation purposes 9-10 days out, your range is reasonable. Late summer has been weird the last few years and sometimes lasted until late October. But the fronts and troughs do start coming down along with the storms coming up. This looks to be possibly one of those OG ones that used to seem to always make it down near the start of fall. Modeling has a pretty deep penetration. I am going to start watching the 500mb which I don’t usually look at much upper stuff except closer to a threat. I think the evolution of the upper specifics on all the globals through the weekend should narrow down what the upper influences are going to do. Trough looks strong and certainly one more likely to make a connection and grab it or force it up out front.

[wxman57]

Take a look at the 200-850mb shear across the Gulf as this potential hurricane enters next Tuesday. GFS is similar. Trof digging down into the NW Gulf should keep it in the eastern Gulf. Florida, most likely.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2022092012/ecmwf_shear_atl_54.png

[ConvergenceZone]

Take a look at the 200-850mb shear across the Gulf as this potential hurricane enters next Tuesday. GFS is similar. Trof digging down into the NW Gulf should keep it in the eastern Gulf. Florida, most likely.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2022092012/ecmwf_shear_atl_54.png

wxman thanks for everything you do here. Love the info you provide...Question what chance do you give this to somehow curve out to sea?

[davidiowx]

Take a look at the 200-850mb shear across the Gulf as this potential hurricane enters next Tuesday. GFS is similar. Trof digging down into the NW Gulf should keep it in the eastern Gulf. Florida, most likely.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2022092012/ecmwf_shear_atl_54.png

Does this get you excited for the winter? Teehee

[skyline385]

0Z ICON same location as 18Z GFS

[skyline385]

0Z GFS coming in stupidly strong, its already 35mb deeper than the 18Z GFS

[Fancy1001]

I think we might finally see it make a run for cat five on this run

[Teban54]

0z CMC also much stronger and further north.

[FLpanhandle91]

This run is gonna bomb it out into the 910s. GFS is 36mb stronger than 18z through hour 144.

[IcyTundra]

The GFS continues to change the details of the east coast trough. The trough is stronger but further north on this run

[FLpanhandle91]

Trough doesn't seem to be digging as far south this run. Could be a more NW to N turn instead of N to NNE.

[Fancy1001]

Might be too early to say, but it looks like the CMC model is finally falling in line with the rest of them.

[Keldeo1997]

Approaching CAT 5 Pressures

Edit: No landfall on Cuba down to 928mb

[ConvergenceZone]

This run is gonna bomb it out into the 910s. GFS is 36mb stronger than 18z through hour 144.

A Potential monster in the making, no doubt...... There's just hope that there's a fly in the ointment somewhere down the line to keep that from happening.

[Fancy1001]

I really wanted this to be Gaston, but with a name like Hermine, will get plenty of memes.

[FLpanhandle91]

This run is gonna bomb it out into the 910s. GFS is 36mb stronger than 18z through hour 144.

A Potential monster in the making, no doubt...... There's just hope that there's a fly in the ointment somewhere down the line to keep that from happening.

Really hoping the northern GOM has some screaming shear as some models are indicating right now.

[skyline385]