ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

Has anyone heard about AF307? No data since 6z

[Iceresistance]

ADT now up to 6.5

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 SEP 2022 Time : 072020 UTC
Lat : 23:38:59 N Lon : 71:45:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 927mb / 132kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 26 km

Center Temp : +18.0C Cloud Region Temp : -68.7C

Scene Type : EYE

[PavelGaborik10]

May not be the prettiest cat 4 but can't really complain given this entire season so far lol

She looks to be battling some shear/dry air on the NE side, but looks like an absolute beauty outside of that.

Yeah, I give up trying to post an image.

[Hammy]

May not be the prettiest cat 4 but can't really complain given this entire season so far lol

She looks to be battling some shear/dry air on the NE side, but looks like an absolute beauty outside of that.

Yeah, I give up trying to post an image.

If you're using imgur it takes about a minute after it uploads to generate a usable link

[PavelGaborik10]

May not be the prettiest cat 4 but can't really complain given this entire season so far lol

She looks to be battling some shear/dry air on the NE side, but looks like an absolute beauty outside of that.

Yeah, I give up trying to post an image.

If you're using imgur it takes about a minute after it uploads to generate a usable link

Merci.

Beautiful looking cane as far as I'm concerned.

[wx98]

First the recon data went out on TT and now there are no new advisories on the NHC site. Fiona and Gaston are both late.

[NotSparta]

First the recon data went out on TT and now there are no new advisories on the NHC site. Fiona and Gaston are both late.

Appears like some kind of NOAA wide issue. Model data, ATCF data, recon data aren't going out, and NOAA sites are having issues

[Hurricane Mike]

Very strange. I don't think I've ever seen them miss an advisory for any issue.

[Landy]

Wonder what's causing the eye to be squished.

[NotSparta]

Very strange. I don't think I've ever seen them miss an advisory for any issue.

They probably didn't miss it, we just can't see anything

[cycloneye]

Here is the twit.

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1572518782110945285

[kevin]

Pressure down to 939 mb.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...FIONA MOVING NORTHWARD AT CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 71.8W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM NNW OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES

[cycloneye]

First the recon data went out on TT and now there are no new advisories on the NHC site. Fiona and Gaston are both late.

Appears like some kind of NOAA wide issue. Model data, ATCF data, recon data aren't going out, and NOAA sites are having issues

All has been fixed now.

[aspen]

Wonder what's causing the eye to be squished.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/1022073848805470248/429006b9-acef-495d-b0dc-bdb2051ca842.jpeg

Maybe a tiny bit of shear or yet another EWRC. Recon data is slowly loading in and so far doesn’t show any super obvious double wind maxima. The data that has loaded includes a dropsonde with 119 kt surface wind in the SE eyewall, and a 937/9 eye drop supporting 935-936mb, so Fiona might be 120 kt and 937 mbar now.

[kevin]

Note that these are instantaneous winds, but still. 120 kt at the surface and cat 5 winds as the mean in the lowest 150 m. Combined with the 116 kt SFMR it might soon be enough for an upgrade to 120 kt if the next pass finds even stronger winds.

[tolakram]

Why do you keep insisting an EWRC is currently underway? Recon doesn't suggest this and neither does satellite.

While an EWRC doesn’t appear to have occurred there was some reason to believe one might start, back when Aspen made that post. Outside of the current eyewall, there were up to two additional bands where local wind maxima were observed (one just outside the eyewall, one associated with the band to the NE), though neither was especially prominent. When storms take on a structure like that, it’s kind of a luck of the draw as to whether a cycle would eventually occur, or whether it would fail, and we’ve seen plenty of storms do each.

I understand the process, what I don't understand is that when the post was made the satellite appearance did not match the post he made, nor was there a significant enough double wind maxima that would suggest an EWRC was actively underway.

This has been an ongoing theme for 24 hours or so for that particular poster, and it's yet to hold any weight.

There WAS a double or triple wind maxima and aspen's discussion was the theory of an EWRC that is more of a meld than a traditional weaken / replacement. I had no issues following along, and the last post made was theorizing that in fact a meld would happen. We don't clearly understand all the inner workings of hurricanes, we still don't clearly understand why some go annular for example.

[aspen]

All the recon data just disappeared from Tropical Tidbits, but before that, they recorded an extrapolated pressure down to 933 mbar.

[aspen]

This sure looks like another EWRC or meld on satellite imagery. The 00z HWRF shows this resolving by later this afternoon or early evening, and Fiona strengthening again until another EWRC starts late Thursday morning.

[Iceresistance]

All the recon data just disappeared from Tropical Tidbits, but before that, they recorded an extrapolated pressure down to 933 mbar.

Not on my screen, it completely came back with all the data!

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1572578610984423427