ATL: IAN - Models

[jlauderdal]

Euro going across South Florida now.

One run, lets see if it goes back over the gulf next run. However, the ensembles have been east of operational the last couple of days, and ensembles at this range are really what needs to be followed, still dont have a mature system so the model solutions are subject to plenty of error. I don't see an escape for the United States.

[Nimbus]

End of September troughs often dig deeper than forecast to pick up storms.
I remember the season ender one year digging all the way to Panama to pick up a hurricane in the NE Caribbean.

[Spacecoast]

[Jelmergraaff]

HWRF (00z) is finally in. Not too impressive for the next 4 days with up until +96h not even a pressure below 995 mb. But then, in the NW-Caribbean (same as GFS/Euro) very rapid intensification. At +93h only 997 mb with winds of 38 kt, but 33 hours later (+126h) already 953 mb with winds of 104 kt.

[N2FSU]

Did the 6z GFS not run? Can't find it anywhere.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[tolakram]

Did the 6z GFS not run? Can't find it anywhere.

There was some kind of network outage effecting multiple agencies, I suspect this is the same issue.

[jhpigott]

Did the 6z GFS not run? Can't find it anywhere.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I can't find it either. Wonder if it has something to do with the NOAA wide connectivity issue they were having a few hours ago?

[Jelmergraaff]

Did the 6z GFS not run? Can't find it anywhere.

No, there's no data available yet.

[N2FSU]

Did the 6z GFS not run? Can't find it anywhere.

There was some kind of network outage effecting multiple agencies, I suspect this is the same issue.

Thanks!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Blown Away]

I always have very low confidence in a track when the Euro is E of the GFS, both models have their bias.

[caneseddy]

Euro going across South Florida now.

https://i.postimg.cc/sDP0qKGh/3-EB386-B3-7870-4-EA7-957-C-A4-A7189-B4-BFD.gif

Similar track to Wilma….hope it doesn’t come to fruition…

[TallyTracker]

The models look like a shotgun blast hitting the entire western Caribbean and Gulf. The timing and strength of the trough and the timing and strength of 98L will be crucial. That’s a lot of variables in play so I expect it we’ve got another 3-4 days before we get a decent idea where this is going.

With that said, I do think the Gulf is the most likely solution at this time.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1572521093759668224

[pgoss11]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1572521093759668224?s=46&t=o_63yUyVsFF6pgbkfDZDdw

That would be an event for most of the east coast. We wait and watch.

[toad strangler]

I'm not a fan of the trapping scenarios we have been seeing for a couple days. Whatever comes out of the Caribbean I bet we start to see more progressive movement such as th 0z Euro.

[wxman57]

Euro has a deeper trof extending southwest from Michigan to the NW Gulf next Wednesday as this system would enter the SE Gulf. That's why it takes it across Florida. Don't see how it could track toward LA or TX with strong WSW flow aloft across the northern Gulf. Well, the numbers aren't reaching what I expected, but I did say that the two areas to watch are the NE Caribbean Islands (Fiona) and Florida & the SE U.S. for significant impacts.

[SFLcane]

Euro has a deeper trof extending southwest from Michigan to the NW Gulf next Wednesday as this system would enter the SE Gulf. That's why it takes it across Florida. Don't see how it could track toward LA or TX with strong WSW flow aloft across the northern Gulf. Well, the numbers aren't reaching what I expected, but I did say that the two areas to watch are the NE Caribbean Islands (Fiona) and Florida & the SE U.S. for significant impacts.

You sure did! Buckle up Florida!

[CDO62]

GFS 6Z finally running on TT.

[jhpigott]

NCEP models, including the 06Z GFS, are at least 2 hours delayed due to a supercomputer outage

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/sta ... 9060474885

[Blown Away]

06z ECMWF... Slightly E through 72 Hours...