ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jr0d]

If I was a hurricane forecaster (which I am), I'd put my money on the FL Peninsula for now. Models are often too far west in this type of setup.

Certainly getting nervous here in Key West. Currently the GFS has a sub 930mb hurricane just west of us. Way too close for comfort.

While I know computer models do not always perform well before a storm is established, that is not helping sleep at night.

If we took a direct hit from a storm like that, it would be catastrophic. Key West was mostly spared with Irma, as we were south of the eye on the weaker side with relatively low surge.

[underthwx]

There is always a fine line between an approaching trof will enhance outflow (Lily becoming a Cat 4 off LA coast in 2002) or it will produce wind shear (Lily 2002, as it neared landfall and was weakened considerably). Too early to tell which will affect this potential hurricane. Heck, this might not be Hermine. That low around 12N/33W looks like it could be a TS today. Haven't seen an ASCAT to determine if it has an LLC.

True that Xman, excellent points, as usual!

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1572605660386279429

[Blown Away]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1572605660386279429

[wxman57]

The GFS thinks any hurricane named Hermine must be sent to Tallahassee, as did Hermine from 2016.

[MississippiWx]

If I was a hurricane forecaster (which I am), I'd put my money on the FL Peninsula for now. Models are often too far west in this type of setup.

Agreed. I don't see this hitting any further west than Panama City (in the USA). The trough in the models just doesn't seem to be in any hurry to move out. I guess there is still the possibility it gets buried into Central America and then eventually into the Bay of Campeche where it likely gets caught underneath the Texas ridge and pushed into Mexico. I just see Florida as the bullseye for now.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS 12z initializing weaker/broad circulation.

[SFLcane]

If I was a hurricane forecaster (which I am), I'd put my money on the FL Peninsula for now. Models are often too far west in this type of setup.

It would so nice of you to include some potential area in Florida it's a large real estate lol.


Thanks!

[toad strangler]

If I was a hurricane forecaster (which I am), I'd put my money on the FL Peninsula for now. Models are often too far west in this type of setup.

It would so nice of you to include some potential area in Florida it's a large real estate lol.


Thanks!

He did mention the peninsula as a possibility. Which is a tiny finger of land as compared to where this pre genesis energy is. I'd say that's pretty bold right there.

[sma10]

There is always a fine line between an approaching trof will enhance outflow (Lily becoming a Cat 4 off LA coast in 2002) or it will produce wind shear (Lily 2002, as it neared landfall and was weakened considerably). Too early to tell which will affect this potential hurricane. Heck, this might not be Hermine. That low around 12N/33W looks like it could be a TS today. Haven't seen an ASCAT to determine if it has an LLC.

Actually between the low at 33W, and the healthy wave just rolling off, we don't know if this will be Hermine, Ian or Julia

[AJC3]

The 98L wave is still dealing with some dry air aloft along its northern flank (in addition to the NW-N shear from Fiona's outflow), which is why it continues to spit out numerous arcus clouds. It's also continuing to truck along westward at a decent clip (15-20kt according to this morning's TWD). The wave should start to slow down a little, and its consolidating vort center gain some latitude as it encounters the huge "dent" (for lack of a better word) in the Caribbean trade winds (easterlies), which is being caused by Fiona'a peripheral circulation.

[ConvergenceZone]

The 98L wave is still dealing with some dry air aloft along its northern flank (in addition to the NW-N shear from Fiona's outflow), which is why it continues to spit out numerous arcus clouds. It's also continuing to truck along westward at a decent clip (15-20kt according to this morning's TWD). The wave should start to slow down a little, and its consolidating vort center gain some latitude as it encounters the huge "dent" (for lack of a better word) in the Caribbean trade winds (easterlies), which is being caused by Fiona'a peripheral circulation.

Yea it looks like it may not hit depression status until sometime this weekend. The later the better since that gives it much less time to organize into anything strong before landfall.....

[StAuggy]

This smells like a potentially dangerous setup here. If think gets as strong as models forecast, you've either got a very large Northern Gulf storm like Ivan or Kat, which would obviously be extremely dangerous anywhere along that cost. But looking at this setup, a due N moving storm around the FL peninsula is possible. With as broad as this looks like it'll be, thats not great. If it stays offshore the W coast, West Coast is gonna get RAKED by surge. If it moves up Florida just E of center, Dade, Broward, and PBC potentially all get the eyewall of a major. The, relatively speaking, least devastating track would be close to Irma's where more of the core gets burried in the swamps. Doesn't say much though, because thats still plenty bad. Looking at ensembles, looks like its not gonna cut NE like wilma, but rather due N. I'm fairly sure that depends on the orientation of the trough, a neutrally titled one would bring this due N here?

I’ll say this… when Irma hit my parents lost power in St Augustine for 3 days. That was way up from the landfall location. Anything running up the peninsula may result in a similar outcome especially if this gets as strong and broad as models are showing.

For the greater good let’s hope this takes a quicker W-E path. I still remember the mass evac panic when Irma was forecast to take that turn up the spine. There’s that aspect too to consider when making a plan in advance.

[HurricaneBelle]

looking at ensembles, looks like its not gonna cut NE like wilma, but rather due N. I'm fairly sure that depends on the orientation of the trough, a neutrally titled one would bring this due N here?

A due north-moving storm would cause the greatest forecast heartache with respect to the Florida peninsula because a deviation of 20-30 miles in either direction would have major impacts in terms of surge and where the worst weather goes.

[Jr0d]

Heck, this might not be Hermine. That low around 12N/33W looks like it could be a TS today. Haven't seen an ASCAT to determine if it has an LLC.

That would almost guaranteed this becoming a monster as we all know "I" storms historically are extra problematic.

[wxman57]

I don't trust 12Z GFS. Drives it right into a west-east jet core. Sheared storms (west-east) always track right of the forecast.

[Category5Kaiju]

Heck, this might not be Hermine. That low around 12N/33W looks like it could be a TS today. Haven't seen an ASCAT to determine if it has an LLC.

That would almost guaranteed this becoming a monster as we all know "I" storms historically are extra problematic.

Assuming this indeed fails to become Hermine and ends up as Ian instead, a few rather interesting points would have to be made:

1. Ian may very well end up as the first third generation name to ever get retired in the Atlantic.
2. The I curse will continue, whether it is just a statistical anomaly in the grand scheme of things or a mysterious but cruel, built-in code of Mother Nature that automatically wants every 9th NS to become a devastating storm.
3. This is probably the most important point: with NSs forming despite little model detection earlier, there would be no doubt that the Atlantic we're seeing now is in a much, much healthier state than even several weeks ago.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DerrickHerndon2/status/1572632913245601792

[Aric Dunn]

LLC coming together pretty quickly as it enters the eastern carrib. Convection should increase soon as divergent flow moves overhead. Wont be much longer.

[tolakram]

Here the COD view: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-E_Caribbean-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined