ATL: IAN - Models

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chris_fit
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#321 Postby chris_fit » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:15 am

GFS Trend. This is not a 'forecast' GIF - it's literally the same date. That's how much GFS has been speeding this up.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#322 Postby toad strangler » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:16 am

12z GFS weaker and further west than 0z and 6z
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#323 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:16 am

Weaker and further west, this is going close into CA...
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
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ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#324 Postby skyline385 » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:18 am

GFS very west this run

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#325 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:18 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#326 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:19 am

AutoPenalti wrote:Weaker and further west, this is going close into CA...


Nope, going RI heading north through 135hrs
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#327 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:19 am

So I was right about GFS phantom development early on ... at least. I still think it's fair to say the GFS warned about this one way before the other models. Early dev was the only bogus part.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#328 Postby chris_fit » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:19 am

There she goes.....

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#329 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:20 am

Way...WAY west this run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#330 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:20 am

The NE Trough is weaker on the 12z GFS compared to 6z, which is the reason why it has trended further west.

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https://s5.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_watl_fh132_trend.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#331 Postby caneseddy » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:20 am

SFLcane wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:Weaker and further west, this is going close into CA...


Nope, going RI heading north through 135hrs


Not liking this setup for Florida Peninsula. Think this is going to hook into the Peninsula.

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Last edited by caneseddy on Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:22 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#332 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:21 am

Considerably SW of 06Z
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#333 Postby Jelmergraaff » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:22 am

chris_fit wrote:There she goes.....

https://i.imgur.com/w3ihHxo.png


Doesn't matter which model and which exact location, when 98L arrives in the W/NW-Carribean it just seems to set off.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#334 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:23 am

Iceresistance wrote:The NE Trough is weaker on the 12z GFS compared to 6z, which is the reason why it has trended further west.

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_watl_fh132_trend.gif
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_watl_fh132_trend.gif


I'd argue it's more a function of the slower initial development not allowing it to gain as much latitude early on over the central Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#335 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:24 am

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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
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ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#336 Postby chris_fit » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:24 am

12Z CMC appears to be stalling it (and getting sheared apart?) in the SE-ish Centralish Gulf?

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#337 Postby toad strangler » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:25 am

Sure looks to me that 12z GFS will track further W in the GOM than previous runs. Through 138 troughing not as sharp and storm further SW.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#338 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:25 am

Misses the trough. Going to hit the Yucatan
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#339 Postby IcyTundra » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:25 am

Look's like first landfall will be on the Yucatan Peninsula.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#340 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:25 am

Oh my this is slowing down... not good.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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