ATL: IAN - Models

[Jelmergraaff]

Misses the trough. Going to hit the Yucatan

The far western egde though, could very well be that GFS (12z) depicts another phase of intensification after.

[Teban54]

This is why you shouldn't take model consensus 10 days out as gospel.

[TheHurricaneGod]

Last few GFS model runs show an east trend with the ridge over the atlantic.

[galaxy401]

This new GFS run threw a wrench in all of the previous consensus. Always happens this far out.

[Kazmit]

Starts to be tugged north as it approaches the Yucatán.

[IcyTundra]

Really bad run for the Yucatan.

[Iceresistance]

Misses the trough. Going to hit the Yucatan

The far western egde though, could very well be that GFS (12z) depicts another phase of intensification after.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022092112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_26.png

Makes landfall, still moving NW to Texas!?

[Jelmergraaff]

This new GFS run threw a wrench in all of the previous consensus. Always happens this far out.

Honestly, it doens't look too different for me. Yes, landfall on the Yucutan, but still the turn from NW to NE. Will just hit the US Gulf Coast again. It's not like this is a whole different scenario.

[SFLcane]

Cant get caught up on single op runs really no value. Especially this far out.

[SoupBone]

Misses the trough. Going to hit the Yucatan

The far western egde though, could very well be that GFS (12z) depicts another phase of intensification after.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022092112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_26.png

Makes landfall, still moving NW to Texas!?

Texas hasn't really been in play, but never say never.

I'm still watching the ensembles over the operational runs this far out. The GEFS is running right now too so let's see what it shows.

[AutoPenalti]

Turning north.

[skyline385]

With the amount of shear in the Gulf, a disrupted core from Yucatan landfall will probably struggle


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[Jelmergraaff]

Misses the trough. Going to hit the Yucatan

The far western egde though, could very well be that GFS (12z) depicts another phase of intensification after.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022092112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_26.png

Makes landfall, still moving NW to Texas!?

No and it also seems rather unlikely to me. Turn to the NE is just a bit later (weaker/more northerly trough), but still there. Ends up being more to the (south)west, but after the Yucutan curving to the N and later NE again. Seems to be something for LA/MI/FL Panhandle as of +186h.

[AJC3]

Cant get caught up on signal op runs really no value. Especially this far out.

This.

Surely our memories aren't that short that we've forgotten about some of the "hiccups" in a couple runs of the operational models for Fiona...right?

[chris_fit]

12Z CMC Takes it to LA/MS which is a slight N/NE shift from the 00Z CMC

[Iceresistance]

It's slowing down, that is the last thing I want to see on a reintensifying hurricane.

ETA: Moving more north now.

[Ivanhater]

12Z Canadian into LA/Miss state line

[vbhoutex]

Latest from Jeff Lindner at Harris County Flood Control:

Hurricane likely in the western Caribbean early next week

Tropical wave a few hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands this morning is moving west at 10-15mph. Scattered showers and thunderstorms accompany this wave axis, but there has been little organization of the feature in the last 24 hours. Strong northerly upper level winds (outflow from now category 4 hurricane Fiona) is impacting the system and preventing thunderstorms from organizing. Satellite overpass shows a broad and elongated tropical wave axis and no indication of westerly winds on the south side of the axis.

Forecast models remain aggressive in development of 98L especially late this weekend as the wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea. 98L will continue to be impacted by upper level northerly and northeasterly shear from Fiona until that hurricane departs to the north later this week. As the 98L reaches the central Caribbean Sea shear will begin to decrease and by late this weekend, 98L will find a robust upper air pattern very favorable for development with a building 200mb anti-cyclone over the western Caribbean Sea. Additionally, oceanic heat content in the western Caribbean Sea is some of the highest in all of the basin and this deep warm water will help to fuel intensification. In fact the HWRF hurricane model shows intensification from a low end tropical storm to major hurricane in a 24-36 hour period and western Caribbean systems this time of year are notorious for significant deepening in a short amount of time. Although the HWRF tends to have a high intensity bias, this intensification is also supported by the GFS and ECWMF from the western Caribbean Sea into the southeast Gulf of Mexico.

98L will move W to WNW over the next 72 hours into the central Caribbean Sea under the influence of building sub-tropical ridging behind the departing Fiona. By the end of this weekend, 98L will reach the western edge of the sub-tropical ridge and approach a trough that will be in place over the eastern US. 98L will likely begin to turn NW, but how fast and sharp this turn happens will have large implications on potential longer range impacts in the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS and ECWMF continue to be in decent agreement with 98L turning NW toward western Cuba and then moving into the SE Gulf of Mexico with a threat to FL…both of these models have shown this forecast for several runs in a row…however there ensemble spread is much more significant with potential tracks as far east at the Bahamas and as far west as the Bay of Campeche. The CMC, UKMET, HWRF, and HMON all show a slower more gradual turn with a potential threat to the Yucatan and then movement into the SE Gulf of Mexico. The multi-model consensus this morning brings 98L just west of the Cayman Islands and then toward western Cuba by early next week. Much of the longer term track will depend on how 98L eventually interacts with the trough over the eastern US and how it is pulled northward out of the tropics.

While there remains some ensemble members that feature tracks into the western and central Gulf of Mexico, a hurricane strike on the TX coast this late in the season from the southeast would be rare. Hurricane impacts to the TX coast this time of year tend to be from the Bay of Campeche and not from the western Caribbean Sea. Lastly, a frontal boundary will be approaching the area early next week in association with the trough along the US east coast and this should help to guide 98L east of TX.

[Kazmit]

Deepening again in the central gulf...

[Jelmergraaff]

Deepening again in the central gulf...

This GFS-run would add a whole damn lot of ACE to the count of this season...