ATL: IAN - Models

[skyline385]

Front and shear starting to erode it again




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Jr0d]

Cant get caught up on single op runs really no value. Especially this far out.

Ill add this far out with no trackable low, cant get caught up in the model runs. We will see the windshield wiper in the days ahead.

Until we have a trackable depression/storm with a closed off low, I am not going to put much into.any single model.run, what I am watching is the spread of tracks and if the converge. So far that convergence has been Florida and the west tip of Cuba.

[pcolaman]

Front and shear starting to erode it again

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220921/36755504a4088f554cb90902aea9e7ed.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Katrina 2.0

[skyline385]

Deepening again in the central gulf...

This GFS-run would add a whole damn lot of ACE to the count of this season...

Nah MDR runners are the biggest contributors of ACE, this looks to be a relatively quick system


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Jelmergraaff]

Deepening again in the central gulf...

This GFS-run would add a whole damn lot of ACE to the count of this season...

Nah MDR runners are the biggest contributors of ACE, this looks to be a relatively quick system


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Compared to the previous runs this time it seems to be a strong hurricane for quite some time. Starting on Tuesday and - apart from shortly after landfall - lasting until Sunday.

[IcyTundra]

Deepening again in the central gulf...

This GFS-run would add a whole damn lot of ACE to the count of this season...

Nah MDR runners are the biggest contributors of ACE, this looks to be a relatively quick system


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It's crawling through the gulf on this run which would add more ACE than usual.

[Beef Stew]

Cant get caught up on single op runs really no value. Especially this far out.

Ill add this far out with no trackable low, cant get caught up in the model runs. We will see the windshield wiper in the days ahead.

Until we have a trackable depression/storm with a closed off low, I am not going to put much into.any single model.run, what I am watching is the spread of tracks and if the converge. So far that convergence has been Florida and the west tip of Cuba.

Was just about to say this. At this point, operational runs are little more than entertainment. We’re still over a week out, and while the synoptic setup isn’t as complex as some we’ve seen in the past, nothing should be taken too seriously. Once we have an established system win closed circulation in a couple of days, OP runs will start to hold more weight. Until then, it’s windshield wipers and dart throwing.

[AutoPenalti]

Big Bend incoming

[toad strangler]

Big Bend incoming

That's not the Big Bend. Western Panhandle.

[Ivanhater]

Gfs into Pensacola

[skyline385]

lol the front tearing 98L is creating a new system from it, peak GFS thing to do




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[IcyTundra]

Big Bend incoming

I didn't think that would happen going as far S & W as it did.

98L really slowed down in the gulf giving enough time for another trough to dig in.

[Tireman4]

As I have stated before ( and I am just nobody who knows nothing..LOL)..this far out, without no established center it is just a guessing game, or so it seems to me.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Ivanhater]

Big Bend incoming

That's not the Big Bend. Western Panhandle.

It didn't. It came into the far western panhandle hitting Pensacola

[sma10]

Not to undermine the 12z GFS, as it has performed pretty well this season. But this run is quite a bit different than the bulk of 12z GEFS ensemble members

[p1nheadlarry]

Gfs into Pensacola

Good to know it has now included us as a landfall target 10 days out, now we can cross that outcome off the list and sleep better tonight! (kidding)

[cheezyWXguy]

Big Bend incoming

I didn't think that would happen going as far S & W as it did.

Yeah looks like Pensacola this run. Personally I think this marks the western extreme of plausible paths. One thing I particularly don’t like about this run is that is that there isn’t nearly as much weakening in the gulf as on previous runs

[DESTRUCTION5]

Big Bend incoming

That's not the Big Bend. Western Panhandle.

It didn't. It came into the far western panhandle hitting Pensacola

Usually means it's the safest spot to be in 11 days when it comes to GfS.

[SFLcane]

[tomatkins]

lol the front tearing 98L is creating a new system from it, peak GFS thing to do

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220921/5f733aede8934bec63607ac1010391d8.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

LOL. It sures does - deepens it to 978 just 18 hours later.