ATL: IAN - Models

[skyline385]

The thing to note from this run is that track has continued
to trend westward.

On the OP surely which will continue to have wild swings until something actually forms. GEFS still way east of OP GFS.

The GEFS being east really just means perturbations to the initial conditions favors more eastern solutions than western ones. The spread is what's more important rather than select members (surely that's known just want to clarify)

Also the fact that the GFSv16 and GEFS (GFSv15) are not the same model.


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[p1nheadlarry]

Cant get caught up on signal op runs really no value. Especially this far out.

This.

Surely our memories aren't that short that we've forgotten about some of the "hiccups" in a couple runs of the operational models for Fiona...right?

Well yea but the King Euro said a deep trough is coming to take this towards the FL peninsula so that's gotta be the most likely outcome (sarcasm)

[PTrackerLA]

12z GFS suite just increases the uncertainty for the northern and Eastern Gulf Coast. Going to be a long week+ here .

[NorthPalm-Rainman]

Does anybody know what time we can expect the 12z Euro to come out?

[Iceresistance]

Does anybody know what time we can expect the 12z Euro to come out?

Later, around 1-2 PM, the EC-Fast on TT (Tropical Tidbits) just started.

[skyline385]

Does anybody know what time we can expect the 12z Euro to come out?

2PM EST is the standard time for 12Z Euro.


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[Ivanhater]

12Z Gfs ensembles.

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[Javlin]

12Z Gfs ensembles. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220921/4542b39bfc6bd234b64d4b5fd4c73522.jpg

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I take it that what's on the E. Coast is Fiona?

[MississippiWx]

12Z Gfs ensembles. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220921/4542b39bfc6bd234b64d4b5fd4c73522.jpg

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Brings a lot of clarity to the situation, doesn't it?

[Spacecoast]

12z GEFS Ensembles - shifted west from 06z

0Z EPS Ensembles

06z EPS Ensembles shifted west through 144hrs from 0z

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1572633548917465090

[chris_fit]

12Z Euro so far pretty much same strength/speed/location as previous 2 runs

[MJGarrison]

12Z Euro so far pretty much same strength/speed/location as previous 2 runs

Just wanted to note that the gif is of the previous 12Z runs. It does not include 0z runs (or 6z, 18z)


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[boca]

It’s too early for the peninsular of Florida to be dealing with this like gatorcane pointed out it’s not October and a trough will not be strong enough to curve it sharply north and northeast. Unfortunately the panhandle to New Orleans will have to deal with this unless this trough is stronger but it’s not the case now.

[blp]

Meanwhile the TVCN shifted East.

[AdamFirst]

It’s too early for the peninsular of Florida to be dealing with this like gatorcane pointed out it’s not October and a trough will not be strong enough to curve it sharply north and northeast. Unfortunately the panhandle to New Orleans will have to deal with this unless this trough is stronger but it’s not the case now.

Way too early to say that, and you should know better.

[boca]

It’s too early for the peninsular of Florida to be dealing with this like gatorcane pointed out it’s not October and a trough will not be strong enough to curve it sharply north and northeast. Unfortunately the panhandle to New Orleans will have to deal with this unless this trough is stronger but it’s not the case now.

Way too early to say that, and you should know better.

Your right but it’s a gut feeling that this storm is way south and I think the curve will be gradual rather than a 90 degree turn.

[SFLcane]

ECM coming north looks about the same as 00z run

[chris_fit]

[Lightning48]

Hi Boca- In all due respect, I remember when a trough pushed Charley into Punta Gorda and that was August. So my point is, sometimes the models underestimate or overestimate so to say it's to early may be premature. That being said- I think this is going to keep us guessing at least until some concrete COC develops.As always timing will be key!!