ATL: IAN - Models

[jhpigott]

12z Euro slightly east of yesterday's 12z thru 120 hours

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 92112&fh=0

[skyline385]

Looks like a SFL hit or Bahamas even with the trough digging in deep over Florida




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[tomatkins]

12Z Gfs ensembles. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220921/4542b39bfc6bd234b64d4b5fd4c73522.jpg

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I take it that what's on the E. Coast is Fiona?

No. This is for a certain time - those are all the ensemble solutions for that time.

[chris_fit]

[Iceresistance]

Looks like a SFL hit or Bahamas even with the trough digging in deep over Florida

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220921/860683c45a14765ef84360df47061c23.jpg


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Also stronger compared to 0z.

[skyline385]

Ridge building back up again




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[chris_fit]

Euro Doubling Down?

[Ivanhater]

12Z Euro is west of the 00Z run.

Ridge over Florida keeps it from hooking NE as the trough cuts off.

[Spacecoast]

Ridge building back up again

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220921/b19cfce396be983f2913eb6e6f5c3b5d.jpg


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144Hrs: directly over the Isla de la Juventud, which is exactly where the 0z EPS Ensemble mean (EEMN) had it....

Just West of 12z TVCN location

[Blown Away]

Trending E near Florida.

[chris_fit]

This 12Z Track is sooooo similar to 2004 Charley. Almost exact copy so far.

[Iceresistance]

Thank goodness we've survived our annual model storm here in the Tampa bay area!

I'm afraid that you spoke too soon with the 12z Euro.

[MississippiWx]

Interesting to see the ECMWF the farthest east model with the GFS being on the west with the CMC. Going against the typical biases here.

I think we will probably keep going around in circles until models can latch onto a center as well as figure out the 500mb pattern over North America. The CMC and ECMWF aren't really all that different at the 500mb level. However, the ECMWF consolidates 98L farther north and east than the CMC. This results in the stark difference in track. Lots and lots of variables to figure out still.

[skyline385]

Thank goodness we've survived our annual model storm here in the Tampa bay area!

I'm afraid that you spoke too soon with the 12z Euro.

Indeed




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[SFLcane]

Landfall fort myers..

[chris_fit]

Landfall fort myers..

And the probably takes me out out up in Parrish...

[Lightning48]

What we need to remember about the Charley track is that that storm was targeted to the north and go through or just north of Tampa Bay and did a quick jog to the right at the last minute. Charley also intensified from a cat 1 to a cat 4 in approximately 3 hours or so. So the track calling for Charley to go to Punta Gorda, could be the one that might go to Tampa Bay. Who the heck knows- I guess that's what keeps us coming back to this board:)

[SFLcane]

Now maybe we can stop saying South Florida or anywere in Florida is safe.

[skyline385]

943mb at landfall




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[Ivanhater]

The trough never fully catches it. Rides N into Savannah.