ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

AL, 98, 2022092118, , BEST, 0, 110N, 620W, 30, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ

18z...

[psyclone]

I wouldn't be shocked if this ended up recurving east of FL at this point. For those suggesting it's "too early" for a storm to recurve over FL..It's worth mentioning there's a storm doing just that right now hundreds of miles east of FL. Right now climo favors everyone...except maybe the far western gulf. At this point the task is to "wait & speculate"..which we're good at..

[jlauderdal]

I wouldn't be shocked if this ended up recurving east of FL at this point. For those suggesting it's "too early" for a storm to recurve over FL..It's worth mentioning there's a storm doing just that right now hundreds of miles east of FL. Right now climo favors everyone...except maybe the far western gulf. At this point the task is to "wait & speculate"..which we're good at..

The tvcn moved west, its becoming unlikely it recurves to our east.

[wxman57]

I wouldn't be shocked if this ended up recurving east of FL at this point. For those suggesting it's "too early" for a storm to recurve over FL..It's worth mentioning there's a storm doing just that right now hundreds of miles east of FL. Right now climo favors everyone...except maybe the far western gulf. At this point the task is to "wait & speculate"..which we're good at..

The tvcn moved west, its becoming unlikely it recurves to our east.

That was expected. It likely missed the overnight GFS data in the last run. It's indicating a NE turn at the last couple of points.

[Hammy]

Is there any chance at this point of not developing/burying in Central America?

[Hurricaneman]

Is there any chance at this point of not developing/burying in Central America?

The models don’t show that but that being said I still give that possible outcome a 5% chance of happening

[ConvergenceZone]

I wouldn't be shocked if this ended up recurving east of FL at this point. For those suggesting it's "too early" for a storm to recurve over FL..It's worth mentioning there's a storm doing just that right now hundreds of miles east of FL. Right now climo favors everyone...except maybe the far western gulf. At this point the task is to "wait & speculate"..which we're good at..

The tvcn moved west, its becoming unlikely it recurves to our east.

Yep, this can definitely still recurve out to sea and miss the USA mainland entirely, as we've seen that happen many times before. Unfortunately even if that happens the Carib islands would still have to deal with this and it won't be pretty..............

[aspen]

Is there any chance at this point of not developing/burying in Central America?

I’ve been thinking there’s a chance we could get another Bonnie out of this. However, 98L is expected to gain latitude within 2-3 days and stop interacting with South America, unlike Bonnie which stayed at pretty much the same latitude its entire life.

[Category5Kaiju]

I wouldn't be shocked if this ended up recurving east of FL at this point. For those suggesting it's "too early" for a storm to recurve over FL..It's worth mentioning there's a storm doing just that right now hundreds of miles east of FL. Right now climo favors everyone...except maybe the far western gulf. At this point the task is to "wait & speculate"..which we're good at..

Wait...storms can take that kind of path? Were there any historic storms that took that kind of path? I actually never really imagined that a recurving storm in the WCAR would downright miss FL; I initially thought that recurving storms in that region are almost certainly bound to impact Florida in one way or another

[somethingfunny]

I wouldn't be shocked if this ended up recurving east of FL at this point. For those suggesting it's "too early" for a storm to recurve over FL..It's worth mentioning there's a storm doing just that right now hundreds of miles east of FL. Right now climo favors everyone...except maybe the far western gulf. At this point the task is to "wait & speculate"..which we're good at..

Wait...storms can take that kind of path? Were there any historic storms that took that kind of path? I actually never really imagined that a recurving storm in the WCAR would downright miss FL; I initially thought that recurving storms in that region are almost certainly bound to impact Florida in one way or another

Quite a few. Check into the hurricane history of Cuba

[SconnieCane]

I wouldn't be shocked if this ended up recurving east of FL at this point. For those suggesting it's "too early" for a storm to recurve over FL..It's worth mentioning there's a storm doing just that right now hundreds of miles east of FL. Right now climo favors everyone...except maybe the far western gulf. At this point the task is to "wait & speculate"..which we're good at..

Wait...storms can take that kind of path? Were there any historic storms that took that kind of path? I actually never really imagined that a recurving storm in the WCAR would downright miss FL; I initially thought that recurving storms in that region are almost certainly bound to impact Florida in one way or another

Quite a few. Check into the hurricane history of Cuba

"Wrong-way Lenny" of 1999 would be the ultimate example. Formed in the WCAR but entangled with a trough from birth (despite this, it became a rather destructive Cat. 4), it moved east to northeast its whole life.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

[tolakram]

Floater. You can see the rotation in the upper left of the image. Speed up to help.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[tolakram]

[Hurricaneman]

The broad low is almost completely devoid of convection, won’t do much until that changes

[ElectricStorm]

I don't really see this developing for a few more days, 70% 48-hour odds might be a bit too high. Probably will become a TD/TS late Friday or Saturday as it clears SA, although I wouldn't be surprised to see PTC advisories start sometime in the next couple days.

Once it clears SA though I'm not seeing anything that will stop this from becoming a major, probably Cat 4+

[Hurricaneman]

Recon on the way to 98

[Blown Away]

I don't really see this developing for a few more days, 70% 48-hour odds might be a bit too high. Probably will become a TD/TS late Friday or Saturday as it clears SA, although I wouldn't be surprised to see PTC advisories start sometime in the next couple days.

Once it clears SA though I'm not seeing anything that will stop this from becoming a major, probably Cat 4+

If the 18z position of 11N/62W is correct and that broad swirl in that area is the beginnings of a COC, then 98L is far enough off SA now to develop.

[Blown Away]

Last Visible. The 18z position was 11N/62W.

[AnnularCane]

I must not have been paying close attention, I didn't know they would be sending recon in already. I'm also kind of surprised they didn't cancel. It just seems kind of soon.

[typhoonty]

I don't trust 12Z GFS. Drives it right into a west-east jet core. Sheared storms (west-east) always track right of the forecast.

I've come to realize that in August with a storm rounding the edge of a subtropical ridge that models are often too far east, and later in the year models are too far west. My biggest public bust ever when forecasting a tropical cyclone was Isaac in 2012. The ridge was modeled too weak and instead of a close scrape up the west coast of Florida, Isaac went to southern Louisiana. I was actually able to use this to my advantage in 2016, as a student at FSU I forecasted an Alligator Point landfall with Hermine instead of the originally advertised Cedar Key because I thought the ridge was too weakly modeled. Hermine ended up making landfall in St. Marks, because it reached the base of the ridge at a further west longitude.

A right hook of some angle is the climatologically favored solution in this scenario. Given the predicted upper level flow and likely resultant shear, the 12Z GFS is likely unrealistic in it's output. If I were forced to put a track line right now, it would be a weighted blend of 66.6% 12Z TCVN and 33.3% ECMWF.