ATL: ELEVEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Subtrop]

AL, 99, 2022092112, , BEST, 0, 113N, 324W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 030, SPAWNINVEST, al732022 to al992022,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[IcyTundra]

Maybe this can steal Hermine from 98L.

[skyline385]

Maybe this can steal Hermine from 98L.

And then we are back to the cursed I name for 98L


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[Teban54]

Maybe this can steal Hermine from 98L.

And then we are back to the cursed I name for 98L


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Or, the wave currently in Africa quickly develops, and 98L ends up being named Julia

[cycloneye]

[Beef Stew]

Looking for the odds to be bumped substantially later today. This wave is looking very healthy. Interested to see ASCAT if we get a good pass.

[Iceresistance]

Looking for the odds to be bumped substantially later today. This wave is looking very healthy. Interested to see ASCAT if we get a good pass.

ASCAT did make a pass, but the convection is sheared to the west

[Beef Stew]

Looking for the odds to be bumped substantially later today. This wave is looking very healthy. Interested to see ASCAT if we get a good pass.

ASCAT did make a pass, but the convection is sheared to the west

Ah, thanks for the info. I must’ve missed it earlier.

[aspen]

Jeez it’s hard to keep track of everything out there. A week ago today it seemed like this’ll be a below average, slow-burn season. Now we have three AOIs competing for the next name on the list alongside a TS and a Cat 4 hurricane.

The first SHIPS output shows a very favorable environment…except for the fact that RH values are only in the 50s%. This might be a sleeper and over-achiever if it can avoid taking in too much dry air, which will be very difficult for it.

[cycloneye]

3. East Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has continued in association with a
tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Despite a dry environment, slow development of
this system is possible over the next several days as it moves
northwestward and then westward over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[AJC3]

Finally being analyzed by TAFB...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 32W from west of the Cabo
Verde Islands at 16N southward through a weak 1012 mb low at
10.5N32.5W, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is present from 09N to 14N between 30W
and 36W. Slow development is possible and there is a low chance of
formation for the next 5 days.

[ouragans]

No BT update since 12z. No models available neither

[ElectricStorm]

Doesn't have much support from the models but I could see this becoming a TS

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Despite a dry environment,
slow development of this system is possible over the next several
days as it moves slowly northwestward or northward over the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[ouragans]

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Despite marginal environmental conditions, some slow development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves slowly northwestward or northward over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[weeniepatrol]

[Teban54]

https://imgur.com/4K3mWQd

In addition to the convective bursts getting better organized in the past hour or so, it looks like the broad low-level rotation is also being pulled closer to the convection (it was well to the SE in the afternoon).

[ouragans]

East Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Despite marginal
environmental conditions, some slow development of this system is
possible over the next several days while it moves slowly
northwestward or northward over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Sciencerocks]