ATL: IAN - Models

[Craters]

Lmao
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1572649821080809478?t=xN0Bj66hcsV4fz27kBlrqw&s=19

Guaranteed to have a pinhole eye, though...

[Kohlecane]

https://i.imgur.com/n9ttse6.gif
12z GEFS...

That one into Kingsbay, GA would be supper rare!

[Eyeofdtiger75]

Wxman57 is the EURO similar to your track ideas?

From the discussion board

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
#205 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 21, 2022 1:53 pm

That's it! I hate the ECMWF now. What does it have against Mickey Mouse? We have a vacation planned to Disney World Oct 22-29. Hope the power is back on by then.

Seriously, the EC sees the west-east jet core across the Gulf, GFS just drives the storm right into it. EC is more believable, though nowhere on the peninsula is safe yet.

Try checking in at WDW on Oct 1st having to drive I-10 the night of Sept 30 from NWLA. Doesn’t look I will be making that drive.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS

12 EURO

AL, 98, 2022092118, , BEST, 0, 110N, 620W

18z position was 11N/62W.

The 12z GFS doesn't reach this position until after 06z Sept 22? That's a pretty big lag if I'm reading correctly.

The EURO's position at 06z Sept 22 is about right if you think the current 18z position is correct.

Any thoughts?

[Spacecoast]

"Any thoughts?"
This is why ensembles are valuable. Very small differences in the initial position/ environment will be amplified, and make large differences later.
Knowing that the exact initial conditions cannot be measured precisely enough, ensembles perturb these conditions to provide a range of possiblities.
If you look closely, the more southern members @ hr zero take a more western path toward the Yucatan, matching the GFS track.
12z EPS:

[Nimbus]

Lmao
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1572649821080809478?t=xN0Bj66hcsV4fz27kBlrqw&s=19

The Davinci code should be tracking at 14 N not 16...

[Iceresistance]

https://i.imgur.com/NJhbuPI.png

The CTCI is really aggressive here. This could be the first model to try to make this storm a Cat 5.

[caneseddy]

18z Icon finishes its run weaker and south of the 12z run.

[caneseddy]

From earlier today

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1572650902883794946

[SouthFLTropics]

Ok, Happy Hour GFS time...

Let's see if it holds serve to the west or if it comes back east.

[cheezyWXguy]

I’m already about ready to throw out the 18z gfs. Initializes the low over SA, instead of just north of the coast, and has some weird issue with competing centers that’s not present on any prior run. Either this is some glitch or some effect on storm evolution caused by the poor initialization.

[Blown Away]

GFS Trend... Been trending faster for @8 runs in a row... Weird

[Blown Away]

18z GFS... 102 Hours

[Pelicane]

https://i.imgur.com/CEgIJib.gif
18z GFS... 102 Hours

Is that a hurricane or a reproducing bacteria? This happened with Fiona and it completely throws off the track.

[tarheelprogrammer]

CA this run. Hmmm. I will go out on a limb and say this is not going to struggle in a low shear, high OHC environment. Just a hunch.

[Iceresistance]

I'm thinking that the GFS model is starting to go too fast. It would be the ultimate troll if this happened.

[CDO62]

18z GFS is moving West faster as has been it's trend the last few runs.

[SouthFLTropics]

This really doesn't seem to make sense to me. GFS is showing a huge trough dug across the eastern half of the CONUS, yet 98L just plows right into the Yucatan. I would think that it would feel the weakness or am I missing something? If this were in the MDR we'd be looking for such a trough to save the day and turn it north and out to sea.

[ElectricStorm]

Even with the slow start it still bombs to 967mb before the Yucatan. Shows how favorable the environment will be

[IcyTundra]

My thinking right now is that due to the forward speed of 98L in the 18Z GFS it has issues organizing. It looks like this thing is blasting west at 20 mph+