ATL: IAN - Models

[Blown Away]

18z GFS

[Ivanhater]

This really doesn't seem to make sense to me. GFS is showing a huge trough dug across the eastern half of the CONUS, yet 98L just plows right into the Yucatan. I would think that it would feel the weakness or am I missing something? If this were in the MDR we'd be looking for such a trough to save the day and turn it north and out to sea.

It does have some influence but look at the ridge east of Florida building to the west beneath it. The trough is too far north and the system far enough south to miss.

[Ivanhater]

Another big shift West. Trend of the day.

Not to say it won't trend back east later and probably will

[Blown Away]

Crazy the GFS the W outlier and Euro the E outlier both showing a significant hurricane... Something is not right...

[aspen]

Did the GFS and Euro swap names? You’d expect to see such a SW-shifted track from the Euro, not the weakness-loving GFS.

If these fast/weak/SW shifts continue, then 98L might end up as another Bonnie, regardless of how favorable the environment is. North like the Euro (can’t believe I’m saying that lol) would result in the highest intensity ceiling, but the Euro is looking progressively more alone.

[SouthFLTropics]

Crazy the GFS the W outlier and Euro the E outlier both showing a significant hurricane... Something is not right...

It's downright hinky... I feel like we're in bizarro world. I can't recall a time when the Euro was east and the GFS was west. I'm sure there has been but I can't remember it.

[sma10]

Dismiss the GFS 12z and 18z runs as nonsense at your peril. All I heard during Earl and Fiona was how the GFS was out to lunch with it's earlier recurves

[Ivanhater]

Quite a few Euro ensembles show exactly what the 12Z and 18Z Gfs are showing

[AtlanticWind]

Euro has much deeper trough at 180 hours , we shall see which is correct or some blend of them

[Blown Away]

18z GFS... 186 hours

[caneseddy]

https://i.imgur.com/WKE57NG.gif

18z GFS... 186 hours

There's the turn to the N Central Gulf

[AtlanticWind]

Watch it still hit the panhandle

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/WKE57NG.gif

18z GFS... 186 hours

Looks like the SW shift is due to the LLC consolidating in the southern part of 98L’s wave envelope, instead of directly in the center like on many of the other global and hurricane models.

[p1nheadlarry]

Dismiss the GFS 12z and 18z runs as nonsense at your peril. All I heard during Earl and Fiona was how the GFS was out to lunch with it's earlier recurves

If this was the ECMWF hardly anyone would bat an eye, both due to 'brand' and it being the westward solution

[SunnyThoughts]

Watch it still hit the panhandle

Yep, or very close. Maybe Mobile.

[Pelicane]

It's actually still pretty similar to 12z in terms of intensity and location, despite the initialization.

[Emmett_Brown]

Subtle differences in the upper air pattern at 120 hours on the 12Z Euro and 18Z GFS. On the GFS, the trough over the Great Lakes dips a little farther S than the Euro, which makes it look like it would want to pick it up, but 98L keeps moving quickly WNW. Seems like the whole difference is the speed of motion of 98L during the first few days.

[Ivanhater]

Still heading due N south of the mouth of the Mississippi and strengthening. 938 mb

[Pelicane]

Still heading due N south of the mouth of the Mississippi and strengthening. 938 mb

[sma10]

Dismiss the GFS 12z and 18z runs as nonsense at your peril. All I heard during Earl and Fiona was how the GFS was out to lunch with it's earlier recurves

If this was the ECMWF hardly anyone would bat an eye, both due to 'brand' and it being the westward solution

Naturally
Confirmation bias is just one of the many charms of this board