ATL: IAN - Models

[Blown Away]

https://i.imgur.com/nbdEo3b.png

GFS big swing W and 00z early model suite swings back E. Crazy models for 98L.

[toad strangler]

https://i.imgur.com/nbdEo3b.png

GFS big swing W and 00z early model suite swings back E. Crazy models for 98L.

As wxman57 put it a few times recently. The GFS is on crack lol

[AxaltaRacing24]

https://i.imgur.com/nbdEo3b.png

GFS big swing W and 00z early model suite swings back E. Crazy models for 98L.

As wxman57 put it a few times recently. The GFS is on crack lol

Yeah. I just don’t see the GFS playing out in reality. The Euro could be too far east as well, but I just don’t buy a stall that results in Hermine making landfall TWO WEEKS away from now.

[MJGarrison]

Weaker it is the more west it will go

In Levi’s video from today (16:30), he talks about how in this case, a stronger storm will feel wind sheer and “deviate farther south.”


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[hurricane2025]

Euro ensembles shift west from 12z

[IcyTundra]

https://i.imgur.com/nbdEo3b.png

GFS big swing W and 00z early model suite swings back E. Crazy models for 98L.

As wxman57 put it a few times recently. The GFS is on crack lol

Agree that the GFS is far too slow with 98L once it gets in the Gulf, but if it stays weak enough for long enough I can definitely see 98L hitting the Yucatan first before turning to the north.

[AutoPenalti]

Euro ensembles shift west


What a mess lol

[Stormcenter]

GFS or any other model can’t be on “crack” just because it don’t spit out a solution you agree with. Just think
Laura and what EURO thought she was going. I guess it
was on crack then too. Lol

[toad strangler]

GFS or any other model can’t be on “crack” just because it don’t spit out a solution you agree with. Just think
Laura and what EURO thought she was going. I guess it
was on crack then too. Lol

Ok how is out to lunch?

[FLpanhandle91]

Anyone know if recon data made it into the 00z runs?

[MississippiWx]

Anyone know if recon data made it into the 00z runs?

It did. The NHC update stated it would.

[AdamFirst]

Anyone know if recon data made it into the 00z runs?

It was mentioned that tonight's suites will feature recon data on the TWO

[ncforecaster89]

Weaker it is the more west it will go

In Levi’s video from today (16:30), he talks about how in this case, a stronger storm will feel wind sheer and “deviate farther south.”


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With all due respect, that’s incorrect. The deeper the storm, in this case, will move more poleward.

[MississippiWx]

Can someone post the 18z EPS tracks?

Thanks!

[Spacecoast]

Can someone post the 18z EPS tracks?

Thanks!

Here you go...

[lsuhurricane]

The 18z EPS did indeed move further south and west. But that was expected after the 18z operational was very close to the ICON and GFS through 90 hours

[Poonwalker]

The only thing the models are supporting is that a storm is likely going to get into the GOM. Probably Sunday or Monday we will have a better idea who might be most affected simply because the storm will likely have a stacked structure . It’ll still be about 6 days out at that time. Until then expect some wild swings left and right.

[SFLcane]

Can someone post the 18z EPS tracks?

Thanks!

Here you go...
https://i.ibb.co/v4Bq077/cgn.jpg

there has not been no substantial shift west or southwest lol. Still indicating a possible NE turn at some point.

[SFLcane]

Gfs on an island buy itself.

[Keldeo1997]

Lets just hope that one model doesn't verify..