ATL: IAN - Models

[gatorcane]

Can someone post the 18z EPS tracks?

Thanks!

Here you go...
https://i.ibb.co/v4Bq077/cgn.jpg

Tracks aside, most don’t look particularly strong. Also the 18Z Euro looks a bit weaker as well. Fair to say the Euro has been trending weaker?

[weeniepatrol]

Weaker it is the more west it will go

In Levi’s video from today (16:30), he talks about how in this case, a stronger storm will feel wind sheer and “deviate farther south.”


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

With all due respect, that’s incorrect. The deeper the storm, in this case, will move more poleward

He was referring to the northerly shear associated with the outflow of Fiona, along the 200-500mb layers which a vertically deeper 98L would feel more

[gatorcane]

The NAVGEM drops it. Hmmm.

[SFLcane]

The NAVGEM drops it. Hmmm.

https://i.postimg.cc/nVGLNJNH/nvg10-sfc10m-150-go-mex.gif

[skyline385]

Anyone know if recon data made it into the 00z runs?

Not hearing anything about it on Twitter and the NCEP Data Dump table hasn't updated yet for 09/22 0Z run

[Kingarabian]

Also the EPAC randomly spawned a TC which might mess with the models.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Also the EPAC randomly spawned a TC which might mess with the models.

Yes, but it isn't forecast to do much and it really is tiny...looks like a little minicane next to the decaying circulation of Madeline

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1572732561109164033




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1572733217735847938




 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1572746081536024578

[skyline385]

Anyone know if recon data made it into the 00z runs?

Not hearing anything about it on Twitter and the NCEP Data Dump table hasn't updated yet for 09/22 0Z run

https://i.imgur.com/Pin5oE1.gif

Updated now for FL recco data, looks like 7 got in for the 0Z run

[Stormcenter]

It's been there before (on an island) and has been right. The same could be said of the EURO and other models too.

Gfs on an island buy itself.

https://i.postimg.cc/R0xX2NCR/20-D47-EFD-0588-4674-89-D9-238-D9-DB5-DE81.jpg

[hurricane2025]

 https://twitter.com/ericburriswesh/status/1572784100188254209

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1572732561109164033?t=IVzDCMm8Xqo-xj8rhyfi-A&s=19

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1572733217735847938?t=eKk_fhAg7M8q8iGMwDSTRA&s=19

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1572746081536024578?t=T_qKJvci1ULtC4fOtN39vQ&s=19

Not sure why Hazelton is specifically throwing out the term "wave-breaking" here when it's not really that applicable nor crucial for understanding the current track split between the two heavyweights. Instead, it's pretty clear that we're dealing with the GFS and ECMWF having a disagreement about how progressive the forecasted trough feature will be (GFS's progressive bias vs EURO's more stout ridging bias -> slower progression), which explains why the GFS is on the left side with the ECMWF (and UKMET) on the right of the model spread. Hazelton is right on the upper-level environment in regards to future intensity, though; the placement of the storm relative to the anticyclone there will be important for how strong 98L can get.

Regardless, see this tweet from our own Professor for what I'm yapping about
 https://twitter.com/IngyBall/status/1572776405704011776

[ncapps]

 https://twitter.com/ericburriswesh/status/1572784100188254209

Any chance with Fiona's outflow and shear that it never really develops after interacting with land?

I have a business trip to Miami next week and would really prefer not have to worry about a Cane down there.

[CrazyC83]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1021597907050307684/1022323876392345640/unknown.png

Lets just hope that one model doesn't verify..

That would be the Atlantic's Patricia...

[skyline385]

0Z ICON with a west jump at end of run after clearing Yucatan

[Ptarmigan]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1021597907050307684/1022323876392345640/unknown.png

Lets just hope that one model doesn't verify..

The CTCI is an outlier. Most have it has a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.

[skyline385]

GFS 0Z coming in strong, 995mb at 57 hrs

EDIT: weakens immediately afterwards

[Teban54]

GFS 0Z coming in strong, 995mb at 57 hrs

EDIT: weakens immediately afterwards

Not sure where you got that at 57 hrs, on TT both 54 hrs and 60 hrs have lower 1000s.

This run is indeed stronger than the last few runs, 987 mb at 90 hrs. Track about the same as 18z.

[skyline385]

GFS 0Z coming in strong, 995mb at 57 hrs

EDIT: weakens immediately afterwards

Not sure where you got that at 57 hrs, on TT both 54 hrs and 60 hrs have lower 1000s.

This run is indeed stronger than the last few runs, 987 mb at 90 hrs. Track about the same as 18z.

It was on pivotal, I noticed that TT was not showing it. It's probably a bug with Levi's plots, seen it happen before.

[SoupBone]

Not liking these continued westerly trends on successive model runs like the GFS is showing. I keep thinking it's possible to miss the trough and continue into the western GOM. That high over Texas should hold, but I don't like these west movements and having to bank on a hard NE turn at the end.