ATL: IAN - Models

[otowntiger]

Seems that GFS continues to shift west with each run lately. The chasm between it and Euro seems to as wide as ever. Although the Euro is starting to creep a bit west itself.

[wicked_wx_watcher]

In late September? Highly doubt it. Not impossible but damn near it.

I agree if this was happening a month earlier or even 2 weeks ago it would be a bigger threat to Texas but with it being late September I don't see it happening. Rita came close to being a rare late September hit and there is a few others I'm forgetting but it is highly unlikely imo.

While I know Rita was technically a SW LA hit, if you look at the track, it made landfall in that tiny corner of SW LA that kind of sticks out to the west "into" Texas. The effects were devastating here in SE TX as well as SW LA. With that said, I consider that a late hit for Texas and doubt anything would hit this far west any later. 98L will likely be an issue for Louisiana eastward.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/bQr81Yv/20220922-003032.jpg [/url]

You are absolutely correct about Rita. From Jefferson & Orange Counties, tracking through the piney woods of east Texas, Rita’s destruction was widespread. Compounding the mental anguish, this area was full of displaced Katrina families who were forced to evac a 2nd time in less than a month. It took 3 weeks+ to get power back in higher populated areas.

[Iceresistance]

Mean 0Z GEFS is between the Yucatan and Cuba, another west shift.

[chris_fit]

Here's the 00Z EPS

0-120h only



Complete Suite

[Nimbus]

Mean 0Z GEFS is between the Yucatan and Cuba, another west shift.

06Z GFS crosses the Yucatan peninsula but the land interaction doesn't slow it down much.

[chris_fit]

Looking at the 500mb heights - Just not understanding how this does not go more N on the 06z GFS at hours 90-144

[Hammy]

A few more southward shifts on the GFS and it's going to end up in the Pacific

[Ivanhater]

Looking at the 500mb heights - Just not understanding how this does not go more N on the 06z GFS at hours 90-144

https://i.imgur.com/XtirmBH.gif

Because the 588 ridge builds right over the Florida peninsula as the trough lifts out keeping it west.

Not saying it is right but the blend of models and TVCN has been consistent

[Ivanhater]

06z blend

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[N2FSU]

6z GFS


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[N2FSU]

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[Keldeo1997]

This might be a East Texas/SWLA landfall...

[chris_fit]

ECMF vs GFS (most recent runs) 500mb heights @ 162 hrs....

[Keldeo1997]

Even further west. 934MB peak

[N2FSU]

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[N2FSU]

0z HWRF


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[BobHarlem]

So overnight 6z GFS near Lake Charles 10/2, Euro is north of Tampa next Thursday, CMC is Naples on Tuesday, with the UKMET and TVCN consensus in the East Gulf. Looks like it's weighted to the eastern Gulf/Florida this morning.

[hurricane2025]

We need a center

[SFLcane]

00z eps…

[jlauderdal]

We need a center

In a few of days we will get additional balloon launches, planes in and around this almost constantly and a center to work with, by Saturday afternoon we should know who needs to panic