ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Did the recon data go into the 00z or 06z model?

From the 8 PM TWO:

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently surveying
the system, and data from this mission will be assimilated into
tonight's forecast models.

[Aric Dunn]

now that the shear is dropping as Fiona pulls away. convection starting to fire offshore again.. circ is looking good. should clear land over the next 6 hours. and tomorrow the fun begins.

[Stormi]

He's back

[Aric Dunn]

Spinny spinny .. most of the 850 vorticity is over water so with convection starting to build overnight should see a TC in 24 hours.

[AnnularCane]

He's back

Or she.

[Aric Dunn]

most recent ASCAT. 2 hours ago.

circ probably just back over water now. fits with satellite right now as well. convection firing with it .

[ConvergenceZone]

most recent ASCAT. 2 hours ago.

circ probably just back over water now. fits with satellite right now as well. convection firing with it .

https://i.ibb.co/bRDDDW2/999999999.png

Aric, good to see ya! We miss all of your model plotting

[sma10]

now that the shear is dropping as Fiona pulls away. convection starting to fire offshore again.. circ is looking good. should clear land over the next 6 hours. and tomorrow the fun begins.

Where's it going Aric? Yet another storm where it's GFS/ICON vs Euro/UK.

GFS has gotten the better of it recently.

[SouthernBreeze]

Im not liking how warm the waters are off the SE coast compared to gulf. Do think that may be a factor in where it's heading?

[Visioen]

Im not liking how warm the waters are off the SE coast compared to gulf. Do think that may be a factor in where it's heading?

As far as I know hurricanes do not intentionally head to warmer waters because they like it there. Although it would make sense from their perspective.

I also don't think there's meteorological processes to facilitate that.

[SouthernBreeze]

Im not liking how warm the waters are off the SE coast compared to gulf. Do think that may be a factor in where it's heading?

As far as I know hurricanes do not intentionally head to warmer waters because they like it there. Although it would make sense from their perspective.

I also don't think there's meteorological processes to facilitate that.

I realize that, I guess it's more the very warm weather conditions we've had here that I should have said. This in turn has allowed our waters to remain warm longer.

[cane5]

Im not liking how warm the waters are off the SE coast compared to gulf. Do think that may be a factor in where it's heading?

As far as I know hurricanes do not intentionally head to warmer waters because they like it there. Although it would make sense from their perspective.

I also don't think there's meteorological processes to facilitate that.

I realize that, I guess it's more the very warm weather conditions we've had here that I should have said. This in turn has allowed our waters to remain warm longer.

My guess is it will take a rather abrupt turn north as a persistent trough for weeks now pulls it up near South Florida which is not good for me. Somebody please dispute my call on this and tell me it heads more wnw.

[MHC Tracking]

I am thinking the NHC drops it to 60-70 and this ultimately ends up in Nicaragua as a minimal system at best.

As of now, 0 models suggest that. Only the Southwesterly biased GEFS suite gets anywhere close, and even then only 4 or 5 ensembles head for Nicaragua. Everything else is much more NE and seems to be trending that way too. even the south-tracking HMON has recently jumped significantly NE. I understand that people have been burned by model busts this year 9I have too) but it's never a good thing to downcast a system with the potential for such a severe threat to land. If this isn't a major hurricane at some point in its life I'll be surprised.

[aspen]

The next 24-36 hours will be critical in determining 98L’s future, because this is when the models expect it to start gaining latitude and pulling away from the negative influence of the South American coast. The GFS’s SW solution will either be proven right or wrong by 98L’s position sometime tomorrow, and how fast it tries to develop. A further north and quickly developing system could be headed for a Cuba landfall, something that takes longer to reach 15N could be headed for the Yucatan/Belize, and something in between might have the highest intensity ceiling and could go through the channel.

[caneseddy]

---

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1572895408443260928

[cycloneye]

Southeastern Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical
wave located over the southeastern Caribbean Sea. Although
upper-level winds are currently inhibiting development, the
environment is forecast to gradually become more favorable in a
couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form at that
time. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across
the eastern Caribbean Sea during the next day or two, and be over
the central Caribbean Sea this weekend. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely to affect the
Windward Islands, northern Venezuela, and the ABC island chain
today. These impacts are likely to spread to northeastern Colombia
later this evening.

[Jr0d]

Still a mess this morning. I think there maybe some northward motion but its tough to tell.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

[AutoPenalti]

You know it's game on and Aric shows up.

Now we wait for GCANE.

[cheezyWXguy]

Still a mess this morning. I think there maybe some northward motion but its tough to tell.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

It’s definitely still a mess, but it’s done some work overnight. Looks to be a pretty distinct swirl near 11.5 N, 65 W

[Blown Away]

Still a mess this morning. I think there maybe some northward motion but its tough to tell.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

It’s definitely still a mess, but it’s done some work overnight. Looks to be a pretty distinct swirl near 11.5 N, 65 W

Looks like the beginnings in that area IMO.