ATL: IAN - Models

[otowntiger]

06z with a big shift north and east.

https://i.postimg.cc/qMq1hxfF/FAA94-FD4-C94-A-40-F4-9-F41-AF1-D2394-C7-BE.gif

That HWRF run has this thing getting super intense prior to Cuba. Looks to be near cat 4ish, am I right? That seems to me to be rather ambitious given how its not really supposed to begin pulling itself together until it actually gets into the western/North western Caribbean.

[Michele B]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/752166055501365319/1022365985925247008/unknown.png

It would be stalling right over that Warm pool in the gulf

And that makes the lack of strong intensity curious.

[Kohlecane]

Find it interesting that the very first post of the 06Z GFS 20SEP22 is identical to 00Z EURO this morning FWIW

[Poonwalker]

That’s massive!
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[SFLcane]

Somebody is out lunch! Surely we find out in a few days.

[gatorcane]

06z with a big shift north and east.

https://i.postimg.cc/qMq1hxfF/FAA94-FD4-C94-A-40-F4-9-F41-AF1-D2394-C7-BE.gif

Consensus of the GFS and Euro is the best bet and the track is quite a bit further west. As usual the HWRF is way too intense too quickly. Not looking like a FL peninsula threat still, but we will know more by the weekend.

[otowntiger]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220922/76e8a42220238b23e565957253d0fda6.jpg

That’s massive!
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And WAAAY West! Amazing how persistent and determined the GFS is to get this that close to Texas.

[chris_fit]

Patiently waiting on 57's thoughts this morning...

[Blown Away]

06z ECMWF... At 72 hours ECMWF is @125 mile NE of 06z GFS... Big spread in close range IMO...

[Tireman4]

Patiently waiting on 57's thoughts this morning...

He gave them in the 98L Discussion

[caneman]

06z with a big shift north and east.

https://i.postimg.cc/qMq1hxfF/FAA94-FD4-C94-A-40-F4-9-F41-AF1-D2394-C7-BE.gif

Consensus of the GFS and Euro is the best bet and the track is quite a bit further west. As usual the HWRF is way too intense too quickly. Not looking like a FL peninsula threat still, but we will know more by the weekend.

Wayyyyyy too early to make a claim like that

[Lightning48]

The reason you see the HWRF model blow this up so much is the boiling sst's it will be moving through and when it crosses Cuba it will be going over some very low mountains that will not interrupt it much- Does anyone see it the same way?

[Javlin]

ICON 6z @120hr a little more N and E(not much) of the 0z model but still 2/3 days from YUC Channel.

[chris_fit]

Early 12z Guidance - It's Hookin' NE based on TVCN

[SFLcane]

[Ivanhater]

12Z blend and TVCN still tightly clustered and has not deviated much.



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[Frank P]

Well eventually the models will have to come to some sort of agreement down the road, they usually do and my thoughts now are just keep splitting the difference between the GFS and Euro, then compare that landfall location point to the TVCN track, and you might be able to make a non SWAG using that data. Not sure if one will totally cave into the other, but it has happen frequently in the past history of model tracking. 98L is the quintessential type of storm to track with slow development and so many model uncertainties att. Once the models lock in, and they will, and hopefully sooner rather than later (but with this system no too sure how soon it will occur) the hunt will be over and we go into storm watching mode for those not affected and sadly full hurricane preps for all others in the path. Be great if it didn’t have to make a landfall but that scenario seems unlikely. Would hate to see another major hit any gulf coast region, but especially Louisiana or the Mexico beach areas.

[SconnieCane]

The reason you see the HWRF model blow this up so much is the boiling sst's it will be moving through and when it crosses Cuba it will be going over some very low mountains that will not interrupt it much- Does anyone see it the same way?

The HWRF's "monster MH" bias is a double-edged sword. Sometimes it's right (Michael, Laura, Ida) but it's hard to know when to sound the alarm because it also does that with so many storms that never become anywhere near that strong.

[caneseddy]

Somebody is out lunch! Surely we find out in a few days.

https://i.postimg.cc/SsnWfT4Y/D89-B81-DE-50-A1-48-C5-98-A3-DEE104-CD8-BC5.jpg

Wow, that's as tight of a cluster as I've seen from the Euro ensembles in a while; pretty much Tampa Bay south...

[caneman]

The reason you see the HWRF model blow this up so much is the boiling sst's it will be moving through and when it crosses Cuba it will be going over some very low mountains that will not interrupt it much- Does anyone see it the same way?

The HWRF's "monster MH" bias is a double-edged sword. Sometimes it's right (Michael, Laura, Ida) but it's hard to know when to sound the alarm because it also does that with so many storms that never become anywhere near that strong.

Yes they do that, however, to my knowledge they are the most accurate with wind speed.